Anche nella nostra pagina settimanale di aggiornamento, oggi, lo abbiamo scritto: la strategia di investimento non è forse mai stata così chiara come oggi, nel pieno del caos del coronavirus, dei nuovi record della Borsa di New York, dei nuovi minimi dei rendimenti delle obbligazioni, dei conflitti geopolitici in ogni parte del pianeta.

Lo abbiamo messo in evidenza sette giorni fa, ed oggi ci torniamo: perché le cose sono belle quando sono chiare.

Il grafico di questo Post lo conoscete, non necessita di commenti, è chiaro nelle sue implicazioni: insomma, non c’è nulla da discutere.

Il grafico racconta qualcosa che non è normale e che non può esistere: ed ecco la ragione per la quale a noi, in Recce’d, non mette paura leggere dei “nuovi record di Wall Street”. I nuovi record reggono soltanto se poi le cose vanno davvero bene. E quando le cose vanno davvero bene, la riga di colore BLU non sta lì. Se la linea di colore BLU sta lì, è perché ci sono altre cose in atto, in movimento, in evoluzione, che si sviluppano, delle quali la Borsa dovrà, necessariamente ed inevitabilmente, fare i conti.

Quindi, a noi fa nessuna paura, agitazione, emozione, dramma. Ci mancherebbe.

Ma … non succede mai? State a vedere: un pizzico di pazienza ancora, e tutti vedranno.

Nel suo discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione, il Presidente americano Trump ha ripetuto il suo slogan sull’economia “migliore di ogni tempo”: ed in particolare, ha messo in evidenza i dati per l’occupazione, e poi per la fiducia dei consumatori, e poi per la Borsa. Più sotto, se volete, potete rileggere un estratto dal discorso di Trump al Congresso, e farvi voi stessi un’idea.

Non ha parlato (come certamente avete notato tutti voi lettori) di una crescita dell’economia “più rapida di sempre”: non lo ha fatto, perché non esiste.

Da qui, il contrasto: l’economia degli Stati Uniti cresce più o meno come prima, come prima dell’elezione di Trump, e persino come prima della Grande Crisi Finanziaria. Lo sapete bene tutti: l’economia USA cresce più o meno al 2% l’anno, e questo sempre che non ci sia (prima o poi ci sarà) una crisi. I profitti delle Società NON crescono, come risulta dalla contabilità nazionale: sono cresciuti nei conti delle grandi banche di investimento UNICAMENTE per i fatto che il Presidente Trump ha ridotto le aliquote di tassazione sui medesimi profitti. E NON crescono, per nulla, le spese delle Aziende per investimenti: anno su anno, risultano in calo. E (attenzione attenzione) crescono poco anche i consumi, la spesa per delle famiglie, ovvero le vendite al dettaglio, perché crescono poco anche i salari e le retribuzioni

Domandona: ma se ha ragione Trump, e la disoccupazione sta ai minimi di ogni epoca, allora perché non si registrano anche un aumento delle spese delle Aziende (per investimenti) e delle famiglie (per consumi)? Perché le retribuzioni crescono ad un ritmo moderato e vicino al 3%? Perché l’economia NON cresce se non al solito, anemico, tasso del 2%, che è il tasso .. di prima?

La risposta è arrivata venerdì 7 febbraio, ma noi in Recce’d l’avevamo già intuita, e ve ne avevamo anche scritto.

L’ufficio di statistica del Governo ha corretto al ribasso il numero di posti di lavoro creati negli ultimi anni: lo vedete sopra nel grafico, molto chiaro ed efficace.

Ciò che a noi e voi importa è l’ampiezza della revisione: 510 mila unità. Ovvero 510 mila posti di lavoro creati IN MENO.

Come vedete, non c’è necessità di complotti e misteri: basta semplicemente dire che i numeri erano sbagliati. Falsi? No, diciamo sbagliati, e non andiamo a leggere intenzioni dove probabilmente non ce ne erano.

Ma di certo, c’è stata una enorme sovra-stima del numero di posti di lavoro e questi vi spiega in modo semplice perché

1. l’economia cresce ad un ritmo modesto

2. la spesa per consumi non esplode verso l’alto

3. i salari non esplodono verso l’alto

4. la spesa per investimenti cala invece di aumentare

Come dice il titolo, questo dato spiega quasi tutto. Quasi. Non spiega la Borsa ai “nuovi livelli record”: che non può essere spiegata dai dati, tutti modesti, dell’economia, dei profitti, dei salari, degli investimenti. Tutto chiaro, bello, trasparente, lineare e facilissimo da comprendere: ma la Borsa?

Per una spiegazione di questo eccesso, dobbiamo tutti attendere martedì, quando Jay Powell parlerà al Congresso USA.

Per chiudere il post, come già anticipato, riproduciamo qui un estratto del discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione 2020 di Donald J Trump.

From the instant I took office, I moved rapidly to revive the United States economy — slashing a record number of job-killing regulations, enacting historic and record-setting tax cuts, and fighting for fair and reciprocal trade agreements. Our agenda is relentlessly pro-worker, pro-family, pro-growth, and, most of all, pro-American. We are advancing with unbridled optimism and lifting high our citizens of every race, color, religion, and creed.

Since my election, we have created 7 million new jobs — 5 million more than Government experts projected during the previous administration.

The unemployment rate is the lowest in over half a century.

Incredibly, the average unemployment rate under my Administration is lower than any administration in the history of our country. If we had not reversed the failed economic policies of the previous administration, the world would not now be witness to America’s great economic success.

The unemployment rates for African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and Asian-Americans have reached the lowest levels in history. African-American youth unemployment has reached an all-time low.

African-American poverty has declined to the lowest rate ever recorded.

The unemployment rate for women reached the lowest level in almost 70 years — and last year, women filled 72 percent of all new jobs added.

The veterans’ unemployment rate dropped to a record low.

The unemployment rate for disabled Americans has reached an all-time low.

Workers without a high school diploma have achieved the lowest unemployment rate recorded in United States history.

A record number of young Americans are now employed.

Under the last administration, more than 10 million people were added to the food stamp rolls. Under my Administration, 7 million Americans have come off of food stamps, and 10 million people have been lifted off of welfare.

In 8 years under the last administration, over 300,000 working-age people dropped out of the workforce. In just 3 years of my Administration, 3.5 million working-age people have joined the workforce.

Since my election, the net worth of the bottom half of wage-earners has increased by 47 percent — 3 times faster than the increase for the top 1 percent. After decades of flat and falling incomes, wages are rising fast — and, wonderfully, they are rising fastest for low-income workers, who have seen a 16 percent pay-increase since my election. This is a blue collar boom.

Real median household income is now at the highest level ever recorded!

Since my election, United States stock markets have soared 70 percent, adding more than $12 trillion to our Nation’s wealth, transcending anything anyone believed was possible — this, as other countries are not doing well. Consumer confidence has reached amazing new heights.

All of those millions of people with 401(k)s and pensions are doing far better than they have ever done before with increases of 60, 70, 80, 90, and even 100 percent.

Jobs and investment are pouring into 9,000 previously-neglected neighborhoods thanks to Opportunity Zones, a plan spearheaded by Senator Tim Scott as part of our great Republican tax cuts. In other words, wealthy people and companies are pouring money into poor neighborhoods or areas that have not seen investment in many decades, creating jobs, energy, and excitement. This is the first time that these deserving communities have seen anything like this. It is all working!

Opportunity Zones are helping Americans like Army Veteran Tony Rankins from Cincinnati, Ohio. After struggling with drug addiction, Tony lost his job, his house, and his family — he was homeless. But then Tony found a construction company that invests in Opportunity Zones. He is now a top tradesman, drug-free, reunited with his family, and he is here tonight. Tony: Keep up the great work.

Our roaring economy has, for the first time ever, given many former prisoners the ability to get a great job and a fresh start. This second chance at life is made possible because we passed landmark Criminal Justice Reform into law. Everybody said that Criminal Justice Reform could not be done, but I got it done, and the people in this room got it done.

Thanks to our bold regulatory reduction campaign, the United States has become the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world, by far. With the tremendous progress we have made over the past 3 years, America is now energy independent, and energy jobs, like so many elements of our country, are at a record high. We are doing numbers that no one would have thought possible just 3 years ago.

Likewise, we are restoring our Nation’s manufacturing might, even though predictions were that this could never be done. After losing 60,000 factories under the previous two administrations, America has now gained 12,000 new factories under my Administration with thousands upon thousands of plants and factories being planned or built. We have created over half a million new manufacturing jobs. Companies are not leaving; they are coming back. Everybody wants to be where the action is, and the United States of America is, indeed, where the action is.

One of the single biggest promises I made to the American people was to replace the disastrous NAFTA trade deal. In fact, unfair trade is perhaps the single biggest reason that I decided to run for President. Following NAFTA’s adoption, our Nation lost one in four manufacturing jobs. Many politicians came and went, pledging to change or replace NAFTA — only to do absolutely nothing. But unlike so many who came before me, I keep my promises. Six days ago, I replaced NAFTA and signed the brand new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) into law.

The USMCA will create nearly 100,000 new high-paying American auto jobs, and massively boost exports for our farmers, ranchers, and factory workers. It will also bring trade with Mexico and Canada to a much higher degree, but also to a much greater level of fairness and reciprocity. This is the first major trade deal in many years to earn the strong backing of America’s labor unions.

I also promised our citizens that I would impose tariffs to confront China’s massive theft of American jobs. Our strategy worked. Days ago, we signed the groundbreaking new agreement with China that will defend our workers, protect our intellectual property, bring billions of dollars into our treasury, and open vast new markets for products made and grown right here in the United States of America. For decades, China has taken advantage of the United States, now we have changed that but, at the same time, we have perhaps the best relationship we have ever had with China, including with President Xi. They respect what we have done because, quite frankly, they could never believe what they were able to get away with year after year, decade after decade, without someone in our country stepping up and saying: Enough. Now, we want to rebuild our country, and that is what we are doing.

Ogni uomo politico, di ogni parte politica, cercherà sempre un angolo a lui favorevole dal quale presentare le cose dell’economia all’elettorato.

Negli ultimi anni, però, per noi investitori questo dato di fatto ha acquisito una importanza che prima non aveva: abbiamo vissuto, noi e voi, una esperienza unica, una esperienza che ci ha costretti ad affrontare una situazione senza precedenti.

In economie cosiddette “di libero mercato” abbiamo assistito ad una manipolazione dei mercati finanziari a scopo politico che non ha alcun precedente storico. Questo è accaduto in ogni area economica del Pianeta, ma in una misura abnorme, e molto evidente, negli Stati Uniti.

Negli Stati Uniti sono stati distorti dati ed informazioni, al solo scopo di spingere vero l’alto l’indice della Borsa di New York, indice che (in misura molto ridotta) ha trascinato dietro di sé anche gli altri indici di Borsa del Pianeta.

Noi investitori siamo costretti quindi a misurarci con un fatto nuovo: l’utilizzo politico dell’indice di Borsa.

Ognuno dei nostri lettori, ed ognuno dei nostri Clienti si fa la medesima domanda: ma quanto potrà durare ancora questo teatrino?

Siamo sereni nel rispondere a questa domanda: siamo sereni nel dire che il 2020 è l’anno nel quale molti di questi nodi si scioglieranno, nel quale si arriverà alla resa dei conti, nel quale si concluderà questa farsa.

Questo perché? Facile rispondere: ogni possibile leva (fiscale e monetaria) è già stata utilizzata. Ogni possibile manipolazione (diretta, attraverso le grandi banche di investimento, ed indiretta, attraverso CNBC, FOX News, e tutti gli organi di stampa e di informazione solidali) è già stata effettuata.

Quali leve restano possibili da agire, prima delle Elezioni Presidenziali? Se lo chiede, in modo efficace, l’articolo del New York Times che abbiamo selezionato per voi lettori, e che trovate qui sotto.

Leggetelo fino alla fine, perché ci troverete un fatto molto curiosi e singolare. Leggete l’ultima frase di questo articolo del NYT, e dopo guardate l’immagine che segue: è tratta dal sito del Wall Street Jornal, ed è datata proprio venerdì 7 febbraio 2020.

Quando si dice una combinazione!

Avete qui, tangibile, una (ennesima) dimostrazione del fatto che sarà pure “la migliore economia di ogni tempo”, ma c’è pure una (disperata) fretta nel trovare una via di uscita!

Governments up for reelection typically do what they can to nudge the economy into high gear just as voters are starting to pay attention. On that front, things already look pretty good for Donald Trump. One problem for the president ahead of the vote in November is that his most powerful tool is now in the hands of his enemies.

Fiscal stimulus is the main reason for faster growth on Trump’s watch. In 2018 tax cuts coupled with higher spending helped the U.S. economy match its best performance in the years since the financial crisis. But Republicans lost control of the budget machinery in Congress last year, when the House convened under its new Democratic majority.

Ever since then, with his own options for juicing the economy having narrowed, Trump has been on a crusade to lower interest rates—a lever that’s controlled by the Federal Reserve and its chairman, Jerome Powell. “The idea that a Democratic House is going to sign off on another Trump tax cut seems extremely far-fetched,” says Jared Bernstein, a senior fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “I don’t think there’s much stimulus there in any recognizable sense that doesn’t require legislation.”

Bernstein is personally familiar with Trump’s predicament: In 2011, as chief economist to Vice President Joe Biden, he was part of a team tasked with finding ways to boost the economy that could bypass the House. Republicans had just seized control there, led by members of the Tea Party movement who opposed new government spending. The list the group came up with was “uncomfortably short,” he recalls.

Barack Obama won a second term in 2012 anyway, and if the economy is a guide (it often but not always is), then Trump is well placed to follow suit. He gets good ratings on the economy, and he’s campaigning on unemployment being near all-time lows and stock prices at all-time highs. Still, economists reckon gross domestic product will expand at a 1.8% pace through the first three quarters of 2020. That would be slower than the same period in 2019—and not much different than 2016, when elections didn’t go well for the incumbent party.

The Trump administration’s use of deficit spending a decade into an expansion has been unorthodox. Some analysts have warned it could leave the government short of budget firepower in the event of a recession—and drive inflation and interest rates higher. Those threats haven’t materialized yet, and economists are coming around to the idea that the U.S. has room to spend.

Trump has also added tariffs to the toolkit. He’s shown that a president can run trade policy almost single-handedly, and since the escalation with China was largely of his doing, he can probably control timing when it comes to de-escalation.

U.S. business has put some investment on hold because of the trade war, so trade peace would likely boost the economy—but that may not happen before the election. Most analysts haven’t upped their forecasts for U.S. growth this year as a result of the “phase one” deal signed with China last month.

Even so, a follow-up before November could help Trump’s reelection campaign, says Brian Riedl, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute: “The more the president can show he’s moving toward a resolution on trade, that will help him in the battleground states and make the case for a second term.”

On fiscal policy, too, Trump may have reached the point where he can offer promises for a second term rather than action in his first. His administration has been dangling the prospect of more tax cuts—especially for the middle class—ever since pushing the last round, which favored the wealthy, through Congress late in 2017. Last month at Davos, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said a “Tax 2.0” proposal may be unveiled within months. Congressional Republicans hope to campaign on the plan to regain control of the legislature. The GOP would need to pick up about 20 seats in November to regain a majority. Most political analysts think it’s unlikely the party can win that many races, especially with several long-standing Republican lawmakers retiring.

Even just the release of tax plans could lift the stock market, and that in turn could boost consumer confidence, according to Kyle Pomerleau, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. That’s what happened after Trump’s election, he says, and “you could imagine it happening again.”

A $2 trillion overhaul of U.S. infrastructure is another fiscal stimulus that’s been touted since Trump’s first days in office. A cross-party deal in Congress proved elusive then and would be tougher in an election year—and even if it happened, only the most shovel-ready of projects could get under way before voting.

If there was a lever to move the dollar, Trump would surely pull it. The president often complains that the strong greenback is hurting manufacturers. He hasn’t come up with a mechanism for weakening it, beyond tweeting his displeasure at the Fed, though the Commerce Department is weighing tariffs on countries seen as unfairly manipulating their currencies.

There is one wild-card idea that Trump could potentially execute on his own—one borrowed from Democratic rivals. Senators Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) propose to write off most or all of the $1.6 trillion in student debt. Trump has privately expressed concerns that he doesn’t have a plan to counter them and asked aides to come up with one that will lower costs for student loan borrowers, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Forgiving the debts would boost the economy like a tax cut, Moody’s Investors Service says. A Roosevelt Institute study released in December explained how it could be done without Congress. The idea has a populist flavor that might appeal to Trump. But there are plenty of obstacles, including likely legal challenges and hostility from some Republican voters.

Trump has other tools under his direct control, including executive orders and policy at the federal agencies run by his appointees. The Federal Housing Authority could loosen credit requirements for homebuyers, for example, or the U.S. Department of Labor could make more workers eligible for overtime pay. It’s just that those tools are small-bore compared with cuts in interest rates—or in taxes. “You hear Trump yelling at Jay Powell every waking hour because his ammunition is pretty much tapped,” Bernstein says. “He can’t go back to the fiscal well.”

La prossima settimana dei mercati finanziari globali sarà dominata da due fattori: il coronavirus, che è una vicenda ben lontana dall’essere risolta, e l’Audizione del Capo della Federal Reserve al Congresso. Audizione che è stata preceduta, come vi raccontano le due immagini di questo Post, da forti segnali di tensione.

Potrebbe quindi rivelarsi un momento di particolare importanza, nel quale si discuteranno alcuni aspetti del ruolo della Federal Reserve nell’economia degli Stati Uniti.

Recce’d su questo tema ha scritto, in modo chiaro ed analitico, anche per il pubblico dei lettori (nel Blog) in molte occasioni.

Oggi lasceremo quindi al parola al Financial Times, riportando qui sotto un articolo che è stato pubblicato pochi giorni fa, e che abbiamo selezionato per voi lettori allo scopo di aiutarvi a chiarire le vostre idee, e le vostre posizioni, in vista degli sviluppi futuri di questa vicenda importantissima che come abbiamo appena spiegato potrebbe avere sviluppi significativi anche a breve.

Risk assets started this year on a tear. Before the coronavirus outbreak unsettled investors, global equity prices had risen by more than 10 per cent in three months while credit spreads were near record lows. This left institutional investors wrongfooted, as many were positioned conservatively back in the autumn.

To some, the explanation is obvious: no one expected the US Federal Reserve to restart “quantitative easing” a few months ago. The problem with this explanation is that it is wrong. The Fed is not doing QE. To see why, it is worth revisiting how this policy is supposed to work. In simple terms, QE can operate through three different channels. The first works by increasing the volume of reserves in the banking system. These are the balances that commercial banks hold at the central bank to settle transactions between themselves. Raising the amount of reserves in the system could encourage banks to increase their exposures to the rest of the economy, boosting the broader money supply.The second channel works by altering the mix of assets held by investors.

For example, if the Fed buys long-term Treasury bonds, it reduces the private sector’s exposure to interest rate risk. If some investors are required to hold these assets for regulatory purposes, a reduced supply should raise their price and lower yields. This in turn could support other asset prices, as a lower discount rate makes future streams of income more valuable today.Finally, QE might influence investors’ expectations about monetary policy.

Buying bonds could make the Fed’s commitment to keeping rates low that much more credible. This forward guidance should suppress interest rate expectations along the yield curve, elevating asset prices further.The Fed’s attempt to quell problems in the repo market — where investors borrow cash in exchange for collateral such as US government debt — works only through the first of these channels, and even then, only partially.

Since the middle of September, the Fed has lent up to $240bn to banks through repo operations and bought roughly $230bn of Treasury bills. Ordinarily, this would raise the value of reserves in the system by an equivalent amount, $470bn. Yet reserves have increased by just $220bn. The difference is mostly due to the Treasury overfunding the federal deficit, rebuilding the balance on its account at the Fed and withdrawing cash from the commercial banking system. In effect, this has offset 50 per cent of the increase in the Fed’s balance sheet.

More importantly, this is probably the weakest of the three channels outlined above. Reserves rarely constrain banks’ ability to lend. So it should be no surprise that the US banking system has not multiplied up the Fed’s injection of reserves. Instead, banks have increased their assets at a slower pace. Nor are there signs that other investors have exploited the Fed’s calming influence on the repo market to leverage up their positions. Aggregate repo volumes look to have declined since September.

The second channel outlined above does not apply in this case because reserves at the Fed are functionally equivalent to T-bills. Both are risk-free liquid assets, providing a similar rate of return, so the mix of risk in investors’ portfolios is unchanged. The only important difference is that T-bills settle a day later than reserves, meaning banks need to tap the repo market if they need to access intraday liquidity.The third channel is also moot — the Fed is not using its balance sheet to guide expectations for interest rates. More important were comments from Jay Powell, the Fed chair, in October, when he said it would take a “really significant move up” in inflation for the Fed to raise rates.

The best that can be said about the Fed’s actions is that they have headed off a tightening of monetary conditions. Perhaps we are getting too hung up on the details. A lot of clients have put it to us that if enough investors believe that what the Fed is doing is stimulus, then it is. Maybe so. The trouble with this logic is that it has been crafted after the event. As markets have rallied, investors have searched for a reason why. We struggle to remember anyone arguing that the Fed’s actions would boost risk assets back in September or October. It seems more like a classic case of rationalisation after the fact.

Rather than obsessing about fluctuations in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, then, investors might be better off focusing on those things that have changed more fundamentally in recent months, and ask themselves the following questions. Will the stabilisation in global economic data result in a more pronounced upturn? Can corporate earnings recover? Have trade tensions been permanently put to bed? What impact will the coronavirus outbreak have? Attributing recent market moves to the Fed’s actions is alluring. But it could leave investors wrongfooted again when the central bank pares back its interventions later in the year.

The writer is chief economist at Absolute Strategy Research in London

Distratti dai temi che oggi sono di prima pagina, pochi investitori hanno fatto caso a Brexit: che dopo essere rimasta nel congelatore per tre anni e mezzo, è arrivata (finalmente!) ad essere legge.

Per noi di Recce’d, è stata una soddisfazione. Per voi lettori, è stata una utile lezione di investimento.

A tutti farebbe bene rileggere, oggi, ciò che fu scritto di Brexit, delle sue implicazioni economiche e delle sue implicazioni per i mercati finanziari, nel luglio 2016. E poi dopo sei mesi, e poi dopo altri sei mesi, e poi dopo ancora sei mesi … sono stati annunciati disastri, disastri, e poi altri disastri.

Oggi, abbiamo Brexit: e domina una calma assoluta, non si registra alcun disastro, ed anche sui mercati finanziari del Regno Unito tutto è tranquillo. Fatto che spicca ancora di più, in un contesto internazionale in grande tensione.

Per tre anni e mezzo, il nostro lavoro, sul tema Brexit, è stato quello di

1. mettere i nostri Clienti sull’avviso, del fatto che la gran parte delle cose dette e lette in quei mesi non trovavano alcuna corrispondenza con la realtà ( cosa sulla quale noi abbiamo insistito anche in questo Blog per anni)

2. portare i nostri Clienti ad investire sugli asset che presentavano un VALORE, anziché sugli asset che in quei mesi erano consigliati dalle banche globali di investimento e dalle Reti dei promotori finanziari

Vedere oggi che Brexit diventa legge, che sui mercati non si registra alcuna tensione, che l’economia del Regno Unito sta benissimo, che il costo del denaro nel Regno Unito sta allo 0,75% (noi stiamo, invece, a MENO 0,40%, lo ricordate?) e la sterlina GBP è tranquillissima a 1,32 …

… beh, queste sono soddisfazioni per chi affronta in modo responsabile il proprio ruolo professionale.

E’ stato importante ricordare ai nostri Clienti che la realtà dei fatti prevale SEMPRE sulle bolle e gli eccessi di mercato, sia che operino in negativo, sia che agiscano in positivo.

Questo lavoro, il medesimo lavoro, Recce’d oggi lo sta facendo, per i propri Clienti, con riferimento a tutte le altre classi di attività: ed il risultato finale sarà del tutto simile.

Per tutti voi lettori, questa vicenda regala un importante lezione: su come si individua il VALORE degli investimenti, su come si evitano le trappole e gli inganno dell’industria del risparmio, su come si gestisce il proprio portafoglio prestando attenzione a ciò che succede nella realtà dei fatti.