Nel suo discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione, il Presidente americano Trump ha ripetuto il suo slogan sull’economia “migliore di ogni tempo”: ed in particolare, ha messo in evidenza i dati per l’occupazione, e poi per la fiducia dei consumatori, e poi per la Borsa. Più sotto, se volete, potete rileggere un estratto dal discorso di Trump al Congresso, e farvi voi stessi un’idea.

Non ha parlato (come certamente avete notato tutti voi lettori) di una crescita dell’economia “più rapida di sempre”: non lo ha fatto, perché non esiste.

Da qui, il contrasto: l’economia degli Stati Uniti cresce più o meno come prima, come prima dell’elezione di Trump, e persino come prima della Grande Crisi Finanziaria. Lo sapete bene tutti: l’economia USA cresce più o meno al 2% l’anno, e questo sempre che non ci sia (prima o poi ci sarà) una crisi. I profitti delle Società NON crescono, come risulta dalla contabilità nazionale: sono cresciuti nei conti delle grandi banche di investimento UNICAMENTE per i fatto che il Presidente Trump ha ridotto le aliquote di tassazione sui medesimi profitti. E NON crescono, per nulla, le spese delle Aziende per investimenti: anno su anno, risultano in calo. E (attenzione attenzione) crescono poco anche i consumi, la spesa per delle famiglie, ovvero le vendite al dettaglio, perché crescono poco anche i salari e le retribuzioni

Domandona: ma se ha ragione Trump, e la disoccupazione sta ai minimi di ogni epoca, allora perché non si registrano anche un aumento delle spese delle Aziende (per investimenti) e delle famiglie (per consumi)? Perché le retribuzioni crescono ad un ritmo moderato e vicino al 3%? Perché l’economia NON cresce se non al solito, anemico, tasso del 2%, che è il tasso .. di prima?

La risposta è arrivata venerdì 7 febbraio, ma noi in Recce’d l’avevamo già intuita, e ve ne avevamo anche scritto.

L’ufficio di statistica del Governo ha corretto al ribasso il numero di posti di lavoro creati negli ultimi anni: lo vedete sopra nel grafico, molto chiaro ed efficace.

Ciò che a noi e voi importa è l’ampiezza della revisione: 510 mila unità. Ovvero 510 mila posti di lavoro creati IN MENO.

Come vedete, non c’è necessità di complotti e misteri: basta semplicemente dire che i numeri erano sbagliati. Falsi? No, diciamo sbagliati, e non andiamo a leggere intenzioni dove probabilmente non ce ne erano.

Ma di certo, c’è stata una enorme sovra-stima del numero di posti di lavoro e questi vi spiega in modo semplice perché

l’economia cresce ad un ritmo modesto
la spesa per consumi non esplode verso l’alto
i salari non esplodono verso l’alto
la spesa per investimenti cala invece di aumentare

Come dice il titolo, questo dato spiega quasi tutto. Quasi. Non spiega la Borsa ai “nuovi livelli record”: che non può essere spiegata dai dati, tutti modesti, dell’economia, dei profitti, dei salari, degli investimenti. Tutto chiaro, bello, trasparente, lineare e facilissimo da comprendere: ma la Borsa?

Per una spiegazione di questo eccesso, dobbiamo tutti attendere martedì, quando Jay Powell parlerà al Congresso USA.

Per chiudere il post, come già anticipato, riproduciamo qui un estratto del discorso sullo Stato dell’Unione 2020 di Donald J Trump.

From the instant I took office, I moved rapidly to revive the United States economy — slashing a record number of job-killing regulations, enacting historic and record-setting tax cuts, and fighting for fair and reciprocal trade agreements. Our agenda is relentlessly pro-worker, pro-family, pro-growth, and, most of all, pro-American. We are advancing with unbridled optimism and lifting high our citizens of every race, color, religion, and creed.

Since my election, we have created 7 million new jobs — 5 million more than Government experts projected during the previous administration.

The unemployment rate is the lowest in over half a century.

Incredibly, the average unemployment rate under my Administration is lower than any administration in the history of our country. If we had not reversed the failed economic policies of the previous administration, the world would not now be witness to America’s great economic success.

The unemployment rates for African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, and Asian-Americans have reached the lowest levels in history. African-American youth unemployment has reached an all-time low.

African-American poverty has declined to the lowest rate ever recorded.

The unemployment rate for women reached the lowest level in almost 70 years — and last year, women filled 72 percent of all new jobs added.

The veterans’ unemployment rate dropped to a record low.

The unemployment rate for disabled Americans has reached an all-time low.

Workers without a high school diploma have achieved the lowest unemployment rate recorded in United States history.

A record number of young Americans are now employed.

Under the last administration, more than 10 million people were added to the food stamp rolls. Under my Administration, 7 million Americans have come off of food stamps, and 10 million people have been lifted off of welfare.

In 8 years under the last administration, over 300,000 working-age people dropped out of the workforce. In just 3 years of my Administration, 3.5 million working-age people have joined the workforce.

Since my election, the net worth of the bottom half of wage-earners has increased by 47 percent — 3 times faster than the increase for the top 1 percent. After decades of flat and falling incomes, wages are rising fast — and, wonderfully, they are rising fastest for low-income workers, who have seen a 16 percent pay-increase since my election. This is a blue collar boom.

Real median household income is now at the highest level ever recorded!

Since my election, United States stock markets have soared 70 percent, adding more than $12 trillion to our Nation’s wealth, transcending anything anyone believed was possible — this, as other countries are not doing well. Consumer confidence has reached amazing new heights.

All of those millions of people with 401(k)s and pensions are doing far better than they have ever done before with increases of 60, 70, 80, 90, and even 100 percent.

Jobs and investment are pouring into 9,000 previously-neglected neighborhoods thanks to Opportunity Zones, a plan spearheaded by Senator Tim Scott as part of our great Republican tax cuts. In other words, wealthy people and companies are pouring money into poor neighborhoods or areas that have not seen investment in many decades, creating jobs, energy, and excitement. This is the first time that these deserving communities have seen anything like this. It is all working!

Opportunity Zones are helping Americans like Army Veteran Tony Rankins from Cincinnati, Ohio. After struggling with drug addiction, Tony lost his job, his house, and his family — he was homeless. But then Tony found a construction company that invests in Opportunity Zones. He is now a top tradesman, drug-free, reunited with his family, and he is here tonight. Tony: Keep up the great work.

Our roaring economy has, for the first time ever, given many former prisoners the ability to get a great job and a fresh start. This second chance at life is made possible because we passed landmark Criminal Justice Reform into law. Everybody said that Criminal Justice Reform could not be done, but I got it done, and the people in this room got it done.

Thanks to our bold regulatory reduction campaign, the United States has become the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world, by far. With the tremendous progress we have made over the past 3 years, America is now energy independent, and energy jobs, like so many elements of our country, are at a record high. We are doing numbers that no one would have thought possible just 3 years ago.

Likewise, we are restoring our Nation’s manufacturing might, even though predictions were that this could never be done. After losing 60,000 factories under the previous two administrations, America has now gained 12,000 new factories under my Administration with thousands upon thousands of plants and factories being planned or built. We have created over half a million new manufacturing jobs. Companies are not leaving; they are coming back. Everybody wants to be where the action is, and the United States of America is, indeed, where the action is.

One of the single biggest promises I made to the American people was to replace the disastrous NAFTA trade deal. In fact, unfair trade is perhaps the single biggest reason that I decided to run for President. Following NAFTA’s adoption, our Nation lost one in four manufacturing jobs. Many politicians came and went, pledging to change or replace NAFTA — only to do absolutely nothing. But unlike so many who came before me, I keep my promises. Six days ago, I replaced NAFTA and signed the brand new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) into law.

The USMCA will create nearly 100,000 new high-paying American auto jobs, and massively boost exports for our farmers, ranchers, and factory workers. It will also bring trade with Mexico and Canada to a much higher degree, but also to a much greater level of fairness and reciprocity. This is the first major trade deal in many years to earn the strong backing of America’s labor unions.

I also promised our citizens that I would impose tariffs to confront China’s massive theft of American jobs. Our strategy worked. Days ago, we signed the groundbreaking new agreement with China that will defend our workers, protect our intellectual property, bring billions of dollars into our treasury, and open vast new markets for products made and grown right here in the United States of America. For decades, China has taken advantage of the United States, now we have changed that but, at the same time, we have perhaps the best relationship we have ever had with China, including with President Xi. They respect what we have done because, quite frankly, they could never believe what they were able to get away with year after year, decade after decade, without someone in our country stepping up and saying: Enough. Now, we want to rebuild our country, and that is what we are doing.

Quando un solo dato spiega (quasi) tutto: anche lo Stato dell'Unione