Nessuno ne parla ancora oggi: perché?

Entriamo nella prima settimana delle trimestrali per le Società quotate (trimestre aprile-luglio) senza che la grande massa degli investitori se ne sia rasa conto.

Un rischio enorme, che la maggior parte degli investitori non a neppure di correre con il proprio portafoglio fatto di Fondi Comuni di Investimento, UCITS e Certificati assortiti.

Recce’d, per mettere dell’avviso i propri lettori, gratuitamente aveva pubblicato qui nel Blog una analisi articolata e tempestiva in un nostro Longform’d già un mese fa.

Non sarebbe di alcuna utilità, per i nostri lettori, ripetere in questo breve Post ciò che scrivemmo nel precedente del 10 luglio.

Vi proponiamo allora di leggere, con una grande attenzione, quello che scrivono gli altri a questo proposito: in particolare, per voi abbiamo selezionato un articolo pubblicato proprio questa settimana.

Ci ha colpito il paragone, che apre l’articolo: dove si dice che “come le Banche Centrali sono rimaste dietro la curva nel contrasto all’inflazione, così le banche di investimento sono rimaste dietro la curva nel tagliare le stime degli utili”. L’immagine è efficace, perché costringe ognuno di noi investitori a domandarci: e se la reazione dei mercati azionari fosse del tutto analoga a quella vista sui mercati delle obbligazioni nel primo semestre (nell’immagine)?

Potremmo assistere a qualche cosa di storico, così come ha fatto la Storia ciò che è successo sui mercati delle obbligazioni?

Analysts have likely been behind the curve in cutting earnings estimates as the economic outlook has worsened—and once they catch up, select sectors could be hit particularly hard.

High on the list are economically sensitive areas including apparel companies, automobiles, and other manufacturers.

“Everyone knows [analyst estimates are] too high,” wrote Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research. 

This year, interest rates have soared as the Federal Reserve looks to lower demand to combat already-problematic inflation. Meanwhile, the aggregate 2022 earnings per share estimate for S&P 500 companies has risen 2% for the year, according to FactSet.

Something has to give, and that likely means analysts need to lower their forecasts. 

The cuts have already begun.

In just the past month, the S&P 500 EPS estimate for 2022 has dropped by about 0.1%, though it is still up on the year.

During that same time, more analysts have cut their estimates than have raised them for the index’s financial, manufacturing, and consumer discretionary sectors, according to Citigroup.  

Some companies have already announced cuts to their earnings guidance. Restoration Hardware (RH) said sales for the entire year will drop year-over-year compared with a prior forecast of up 2%, and that the company’s operating margin will come in lower than previously expected. Management cited worsening demand for housing luxury goods as interest rates rise. 

But that is all probably just the tip of the iceberg. Recent earnings trends look far too high, likely necessitating even further cuts. 

Consumer durable and apparel companies on the S&P 500 are prime examples. Recently, the group’s earnings have trended at just over $25 billion annually, according to Morgan Stanley. That is well above a long-term trend of about $20 billion. 

Automobiles are another example. Annual earnings there have recently trended at $35 billion, above the longer-term trend of closer to $20 billion. 

The same is true for materials manufacturers. Profits there have trended at about $70 billion, above a longer-term trend of about $45 billion. 

The point is that the driver of those sky-high profit figures is now reversing. Trillions of dollars of monetary and fiscal stimulus in 2020 and 2021 fueled soaring consumer demand. Now, inflation and the resulting change in monetary policy are denting that demand. 

“We had such a demand spike during Covid and some of that has to normalize,” said Dan Eye, chief investment officer of Fort Pitt Capital Group. “It seems like analysts are behind the curve on adjusting earnings estimates.” 

Watch out. That could bring more pain in the stock market before the selling is all over with.