Mercati 2022: il (solo) fattore determinante per le performances. Le nostre e le vostre.

Inflation took a turn for the worse in February as U.S. consumer price growth rose by 7.9%, representing the largest 12-month increase since January 1982. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy - and is the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - even advanced 6.4% Y/Y, according to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics. All the numbers were gathered before the supercharged commodity rally driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, suggesting the red-hot inflation figures are nowhere close to peaking.

Aggressive tightening? Some had thought that central banks would slam the brakes after the conflict erupted, but the market reaction has been just the opposite. A hefty series of quarter point rate hikes are now on the table, with markets appearing to accept a coming period of "stagflation" (that's when sustained inflation is coupled with lower economic growth). It's a delicate balance for the Fed as tightening policy too sharply risks undercutting the economy and possibly triggering a recession.

"I don't want to make a prediction exactly as to what's going to happen in the second half of the year," said Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, former chair of the Federal Reserve (current Chair Jay Powell is under a blackout period before the FOMC's meeting next week). "We're likely to see another year in which 12-month inflation numbers remain very uncomfortably high," she added, stating the Fed was looking at the data carefully and will take an actionable response.

Over in Europe: The ECB on Thursday cut its growth forecasts and raised inflation predictions, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine. President Christine Lagarde even called the conflict a "watershed" moment for the continent, but would do whatever it takes to pursue price stability. She also said the ECB will scale back its bond-buying program "shortly" before raising rates, and with net purchases likely stopping in Q3, the market is pricing in a rare ECB quarter-point hike for October.

Questo Post si apre con una semplicissima ricapitolazione dei fatti che tutti avete visto sui mercati finanziari la settimana scorsa.

Perché è importante rileggere questa ricostruzione di fatti che tutti voi lettori già conoscete?

Lo spieghiamo subito: nell’intera ricostruzione trovate citata una sola volta l’Ucraina.

E qui, ancora una volta, Recce’d vi suggerisce di non investire, mai, sulla base della “narrativa dominante”: vi porterà sempre a fare scelte sbagliate, e a volte disastrose.

Facciamo un passo indietro, a questo punto.

Per mesi e mesi e mesi, Recce’d ha scritto, sia in questo Blog, sia nelle altre sedi pubbliche: attenti, amici lettori, il problema 2022 che i mercati (e quindi i VOSTRI soldi) devono affrontare e risolvere NON è l’inflazione.

Nel 2022, poi, abbiamo ancora rafforzato il messaggio, scrivendo: attenti, amici lettori, il problema 2022 che i mercati e quindi i VOSTRI soldi) devono affrontare e risolvere NON è l’inflazione, e NON è neppure l’Ucraina.

Noi però NON vi abbiamo detto subito quale è, a nostro giudizio, il problema che attende i VOSTRI soldi nel 2022: vi abbiamo fornito elementi di giudizio ed informazioni, per renderci utili ed aiutarvi a formare un vostro giudizio, meno convenzionale, più utile, non allineato alla “narrativa” in quel momento predominante.

Per in nostri Clienti, in aggiunta a questo, non ci siamo limitati allo scrivere: abbiamo anche agito sui portafogli modello di Recce’d, e nei tempi più appropriati, con il giusto anticipo, senza aspettare di … leggerlo scritto sul giornale.

Adesso, invece, lo trovate scritto anche sul vostro giornale.

A noi, in Recce’d, le chiacchiere da bar piacciono poco, pochissimo: le lasciamo ai colloqui tra amici al bar, tra parenti al Cenone di Natale, tra colleghi alla macchinetta del caffé.

E neppure la chiacchiera degli amici al bar, nelle chat, sui siti di trading on line, al circolo del golf per combattere la noia.

A noi, in Recce’d, scrivere e parlare piace unicamente in quelle occasioni (poche) nelle quali è possibile comunicare qualcosa di REALE.

Ed è questa la ragione per la quale noi di Recce’d spesso utilizziamo il Blog per riproporre articoli di stampa: perché per la grande parte dei nostri lettori “se lo dicono sul giornale, sarà vero”.

Bene, benissimo: ecco allora un articolo di giornale, della settimana scorsa. Se lo dicono loro sarà vero.

Tanto più che l’articolo in questione è del Wall Street Journal, il quotidiano più prestigioso al mondo per la Finanza.

E non basta. l’articolo in questione è firmato come “editoriale del Board”, e quindi esprime la linea ufficiale del quotidiano ad oggi.

Nell’articolo, viene spiegato, in termini MOLTO espliciti, quale è il destino dei VOSTRI soldi nel 2022. Attenzione: non fatevi portare fuori strada dal titolo, che è … semplicemente il titolo scelto dal titolista del giornale. Leggete con attenzione il contenuto: come sempre, è il contenuto che conta, non il titolo. E la chiusura dell’articolo, in particolare, è molto chiara e molto, molto utile.

Se vi può essere utile tradurre queste, ripetiamo chiarissime, parole in movimenti al vostro portafoglio titoli e Fondi di oggi, potete contattarci attraverso i contatti proposti dal sito. Ci troverete immediatamente disponibili a chiarire, approfondire ed in generale ad aiutare in un passaggio che è cruciale non per il 2022 ma per i prossimi dieci anni

Inflation keeps rising, and working Americans are paying the price in falling real incomes. That’s the bad news from Thursday’s consumer-price index report for February, and the White House can’t blame Vladimir Putin for this one, though it’s trying.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said prices rose 0.8% in the month, the fastest rate in four months. That’s 7.9% over the last 12 months, and 8.4% over the last three months. In other words, inflation is accelerating.

The inflation surge was driven by rising costs for gasoline, food and shelter (imputed rents). But the price increases were also broad-based, suggesting that the psychology of rising prices has set in with businesses and consumers. The price of services (not counting energy services) rose 0.5% for the month. Remember when inflation was supposedly caused by supply-chain shortfalls for goods?

Well, services aren’t goods. Transportation costs rose 1.4%, and shelter jumped by 0.5%. The latter are likely to keep rising because they usually trail housing costs (which aren’t directly part of the consumer-price index).

Used-vehicle prices, which some economists said a year ago explained nearly all of the inflation, were down in February but overall inflation still rose fast because inflation expectations are now embedded across the economy. The latest NFIB survey found that 68% of small business owners had raised their average prices in the last three months, a 48-year high.

All of this is bad news for workers, despite recent gains in nominal wages. A separate Labor report on Thursday found that real average-hourly earnings fell 0.8% for the month. Real wages have fallen in nine of the last 12 months, including 2.6% since February 2021. (See the nearby chart.)

That wallops low-income workers in particular because they pay a larger share of their wages for the household basics of food and energy, which are both rising fast. No wonder Americans are sour about the economy despite healthy GDP growth.

The White House was locked and loaded for the bad news on Thursday and blamed, no surprise, Mr. Putin. “Today’s inflation report is a reminder that Americans’ budgets are being stretched by price increases and families are starting to feel the impacts of Putin’s price hike,” President Biden said in a statement. “Putin’s price hike” quickly became a Democratic and media meme.

It won’t wash. Russia’s invasion has certainly contributed to rising oil and gasoline prices in recent weeks and, as villains go, he’s top of our list. But inflation had already hit 7.5% on an annual basis in January before Russia invaded Ukraine. The prices of oil and other commodities have been on an inflation-inspired tear for months. Gasoline prices were up 6.6% in February, but they’re up 38% over 12 months.

Mr. Biden can blame Mr. Putin for many things, but not U.S. inflation. The root cause is homegrown: Two years of historically easy monetary policy, and explosive federal spending that fed economic demand even though the economy had long ago emerged from the pandemic recession.

The Ukraine invasion will feed inflation in March and coming months if oil prices keep rising. But getting inflation back under control requires a U.S. policy change: Tighten monetary policy, and control federal spending.