"Io sono un genio"

La nostra strategia per la gestione dei portafogli modello è basata solidamente sulla quotisiana paziente e scrupolosa analisi di ciò che accade intorno a noi, nell’economia reale e sui mercati, un lavoro metodico che nel tempo garantisce frutti di eccellenza. Un lavoro chiaramente basato sui principi della Finanza e dell’analisi fondamentale: e su che cosa altro dovremmo basare le scelte che riguardano i nostri ed i vostri soldi? Sulle chat e su twitter? Sui titoli del PLUS del Sole 24 Ore e di CNBC? Ma per carità …

La nostra professione ci obbliga però a tenere bene in conto anche la psicologia di massa, i fenomeni di frenesia collettiva, le mode ed ogni altro elemento di contorno e di colore che influenza i mercati finanziari.

Nelle ultime due settimane, è tornata in prima pagina, almeno alla Borsa di New York, la vicenda dei titoli azionari di Soeietà già di fatto fallite, che vengno prese di mira da piccoli e piccolissimi investitori che comperano quelle azioni per mettere in difficoltà chi ha fatto nei mesi precedenti su quelle medesime azioni una posizione SHORT.

Recce’d ne aveva parlato in modo diffuso nel mese di febbraio, quando il fenomeno si presentò una prima volta e quando si arrivò persino ad una Audizione parlamentare al Congresso di Washington.

Come sicuramente ricorderete, già allora noi di Recce’d scrivemmo, in modo chiarissimo, che “Gamestop reserà con noi”, visto che quella Audizione fu (sorpresa!) del tutto inutile e che pochissimi allora compresereo l’autentico significato di quell’episodio.

Oggi siamo arrivati al secondo round: e tra i pochi che hanno compreso, molto chiaramente, quale è il significato di questa vicenda, c’è sicuramente Mohamed El Erian, ed è per questo che oggi ne riproponiamo in questo Post un recente articolo.

Le cui conclusioni, per la gestione dei nostri portafogli nel 2021, sono semplicemente fondamentali.

Anche per il vostro portafoglio titoli, la lettura di questo articolo potrebbe fornire alcuni suggerimenti molto concreti.

In particolare, la lettura (va fatta con grande attenzione) di questo utile articolo dovrebbe farvi riflettere sulla psicosi di massa che potremmo definire “io sono un genio”: chiunque oggi abbia investito sui mercati finanziari, ed anche se avesse investito sui titoli-spazzatura, è autorizzato a pensare “io sono un genio degli investimenti, perché guadagno sempre”.

Questa situazione artificiale, per la quale “sui mercati non si può perdere”, è stata volutamente indotta dai banchieri centrali allo scopo di creare un clima di euforia artificiale.

La fase “io sono un genio” finirà come è finita in ogni occasione precedente, e con costi elevatissimi per tutti i “genii presunti”.

Se oggi vi sentite “un genio della finanza”, vi farà guadagnare del denaro una lettura attenta di ciò che ha scritto qui sotto uno dei massimi esperti di mercati finanziari che oggi esista al Mondo.

It has only been a few months since Reddit-enabled retail investors, or what some unflatteringly refer to as the “retail mob,” embraced GameStop Corp. and drove its valuation to the moon only to be frustrated by a sudden change against them in the rules of the game. Today, it’s all about AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., whose skyrocketing value this week has already overcome what would normally curtail investor enthusiasm. The similarities are notable, as is the broader message about what is happening to the investment landscape.

Both phenomena involve an investment thesis, effective amplifiers and lots of cash to invest and borrow on margin. 

The thesis for GameStop was to exploit a few massively offside hedge funds that, believing the business was structurally impaired for a long time, had shorted wildly, amounting to an eye-popping 140% of the outstanding shares, according to some reports. For AMC, professional investors and broker-dealers are being caught off guard by the chief executive officer’s embrace of retail investors in a manner that has allowed a solid set of believers in the company’s prospects to provide a foundation for many more speculative buyers. Their combined force has been enough to overcome a significant sale of shares to a hedge fund that, according to reports, were immediately flipped and dumped into the marketplace. 

The amplifier in both cases has come through Reddit, a platform that has enabled the investment theses to be shared effectively and evolve. It’s a process that has provided comfort to subsequent waves of buyers and is a perceived staying power for the trade.  

Then there is the combination of no-fee trading, ample provision of margin debt and, most important, the surplus of investable cash sloshing around the system because of higher savings during the pandemic, cash transfers from the government and readily available cheap leverage. 

GameStop is a reminder that, as remunerative as the AMC trade has been — and it has been incredibly so, with a year-to-date return of more than 2,800% and doubling at one point just on Wednesday — it is also vulnerable. GameStop’s unwinding came when Robinhood, the favored trading platform, suddenly curtailed investors’ ability to buy the stock, thereby starving the continuing short squeeze of oxygen and allowing market conditions to reset in a fashion that favored the hedge funds on the ropes. It was a brutal blow to retail investors that resulted in sizable losses and raised all sorts of questions, including for regulators, and prompted congressional hearings. 

It’s hard to tell what may undermine the current AMC surge. What is certain is that the further the price goes up exponentially, the tenser the tug-of-war will become between new speculative buyers and those looking to sell and monetize significant returns. 

With all these dynamics in play, it has been tempting for some to dismiss this retail investor phenomenon as nothing more than a mob of young irresponsible gamblers treating the stock market like a casino. That would be a mistake, especially because it would obfuscate three critical developments that are consequential for the longer-term. 

First, what we are seeing is a realignment of the investment landscape at its outer edges, at least for now. It is powered by the ability to coordinate effectively and smartly through Reddit. Indeed, its dynamics have some similarities to what surprisingly toppled political regimes in some developing countries, particularly during the Arab spring a decade ago.  

Second, it is yet another illustration of how ultra-loose policies have enabled more risk-taking. The enablers include large cash handouts and the ability to lever easily that’s afforded by incredibly loose financial conditions — themselves a function of the prolonged pursuit by central banks of unconventional policies involving, first, very low policy interest rates and, second, huge and predictable injections of liquidity. And the impact is not limited to retail investors. It is the same combination that has fueled the SPAC and cryptocurrency phenomena that are causing belated indigestion for a growing number of governments and central banks. 

Third, it is yet another episode of market regulators and supervisors being late to the game. The difficult questions for which there is no broad agreement on answers, let alone effective guidance from the authorities, range from investor suitability and protection and possible market manipulation to larger issues of market stability and contagion. 

Dismiss the AMC whirlwind at your peril. It is part of a much wider phenomenon whose implications go well beyond the immediate and well beyond retail investors.