Crazy

Come tutti i lettori sanno ormai benissimo, Recce’d è un contenitore in cui confluiscono esperienze professionali sui mercati finanziari che sommate arrivano a centinaia di anni.

Lungo tutto questo arco di tempo, mai e poi mai a noi è capitato di leggere così spesso la parola CRAZY, che poi significa pazzo, nei commenti sull’andamento dei mercati finanziari.

Mai, e poi mai: e questo anche se solo negli ultimi venti anni abbiamo attraversato due fasi di crisi finanziaria ad altissima intensità, delle quali la più recente è stata probabilmente la più profonda crisi finanziaria di ogni tempo (2007-2009).

Una crisi che ha fatto danno che sono a tutto oggi sotto gli occhi di ognuno di noi (anche se una buona parte degli investitori finge di non vederli e dice di non rendersene conto).

Squilibri gravissimi, dalle implicazioni terrificanti, come noi di Recce’d con uno sforzo che ormai è quotidiano comunichiamo al pubblico attraverso questo sito.

Terrificanti davvero, ed ogni giorno che passa più gravi.

Allo scopo di non ripetere osservazioni che vi abbiamo già scritto, oggi vi proponiamo in lettura un articolo del Financial Times, pubblicato la settimana scorsa, a firma del brillante Robin Wigglesworth.

E’ un articolo estremamente utile che vi fornisce un ritratto aggiornato, completo, e critico della situazione attuale dei mercati finanziari. La situazione nella quale noi, e voi, investiamo i nostri risparmi.

Robin Wigglesworth

Barring some wobbles on Thursday, investors seem relaxed about the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on already-tepid global economic growth. Even Apple’s sales warning this week spurred just a modest, brief retreat. But look under the hood and some trepidation becomes apparent. Global equities have climbed more than 3 per cent in February, and US stocks have been particularly buoyant, with traders beginning to get their “Dow 30,000” caps printed.

The recovery is partly driven by hopes that the epidemic will be contained. Deutsche Bank’s satellite-powered shipping tracker indicates that Chinese economic activity has now stopped contracting, and some economists are predicting a V-shaped recovery. Even China’s CSI 300 index has clawed back almost all of last month’s losses. Yet the main driver is the fact that central banks reacted with alacrity to signs that global growth was slowing last year, and markets expect they will continue to do so in the face of new threats. The Bank of Mexico’s lowering of interest rates last week was the 800th rate cut around the world since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, according to Bank of America. 

That has led some investors to argue that markets are overly complacent. Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd compares the current dissonance between buoyant asset prices and deteriorating fundamentals to Neville Chamberlain declaring “peace for our time” shortly before World War II. “I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now,” he said in a recent note to clients.  However, one can see some signs of investor nerves.

Morgan Stanley notes that in the downturn phase of a typical economic cycle, investment-grade debt beats junk; defensive stocks do better than economically sensitive ones; large-cap stocks outpace smaller ones, US equities outrun global markets, and precious metals do better than other commodities. All those conditions have been in place for almost a year, observes Andrew Sheets, head of cross-asset strategy at the bank. Investor skittishness can be a healthy sign.

However, stocks do look vulnerable at current levels, says Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, because valuations have become stretched. Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted US price-to-earnings ratio is now back to nearly 32 times, close to the post-crisis peak it hit in early 2018 just before a severe bout of turmoil hit global stock markets.

“Equity markets are looking increasingly exposed to near-term downward surprises to earnings growth, and while a sustained bear market does not look likely, a near-term correction is looking much more probable,” Mr Oppenheimer warned in a note on Wednesday. And if the coronavirus spreads, sheltering in defensive but expensive parts of markets will probably offer little succour.