La differenza fondamentale (e il caos che ne seguirà) dopo Trump

Detto che nessuno scenario si può mettere del tutto da parte, allo stato dei fatti di domenica 8 novembre 2020, sembra proprio che si vada verso l’elezione di Biden alla Presidenza degli Stati Uniti.

Se le cose dovessero andare in questo modo, si chiuderebbe il quadriennio di Donald J. Trump, del quale si ricorderanno soprattutto gli aspetti folcloristici di colore (dalle intemperanze agli annunci ripetuti di cose mai avvenute), piuttosto che i fatti specifici che hanno segnato la sua presidenza.

Non si trova nulla di rimarchevole, per ciò che riguarda la crescita dell’economia (più in basso leggete gli ultimi dati per la disoccupazione di venerdì 6 novembre 2020) e la politica fiscale (qui sotto i dati impressionanti per il deficit pubblico negli Stati Uniti, che sembra un po’ quello italiano), nulla per ciò che riguarda i rapporti commerciali con la Cina, nulla per ciò che riguarda IRAN e Corea del Nord, nulla sul fronte interno per ciò che riguarda le strutture pubbliche, come sanità e scuola, e … non è finito neppure il Muro con il Messico!.

Recce’d ha scritto, in questo 2020, di rado e con scarso approfondimento in merio alle Elezioni Presidenziali USA 2020: siamo infatti del parere che una vittoria di Biden, se confermata, potrà radicalmente modificare i toni, gli atteggiamenti, la qualità del dibattito politico, ma modificherà in misura limitata, rispetto ai quattro anni precedenti, la realtà dei fatti, sia all’interno degli Stati Uniti, sia nei rapporto tra USA e Resto del Mondo. Anche in questo caso, sembra un po’ la situazione dell’Italia.

“A divided country, a slim mandate”: questo è ciò che ad oggi si può dire, per riassumere il risultato elettorale: gli USA sono una nazione divisa, e il vincitore riceverà un mandato popolare molto limitato (che resterebbe limitato anche se tra due mesi i Democratici conquistassero una minima maggioranza anche al Senato, vincendo quel voto che ci sarà nello Stato della Georgia).

Parliamo di una nazione che deve affrontare, nel brevissimo termine, due sfide molto complicate (la sfida dell’epidemia, e la sfida della recessione, che soltanto in parte sono tra loro collegate), e nel medio termine due sfide ancora più difficili (la supremazia economica e politica globale, che è contestata dalla Cina, e il declino della produttività della propria economia, che rischia di scivolare dal New Normal al Never Normal)

Questa nazione, gli Stati Uniti, è stata guidata negli ultimi quattro anni da una figura politica più propensa a distruggere che a costruire, ma potrebbe trovarsi guidata, nei prossimi quattro anni, da una figura di normalizzatore che però arriva quando non c’è più normalità, in alcun ambito sociale, politico ed economico.

Lasceremo come sempre facciamo ai politologi di discutere di politica, sui quotidiani ed alla TV. Utilizziamo lo spazio del nostro Blog per offrire alcuni spunti utili se si guarda agli investimenti finanziari ed al proprio portafoglio titoli.

A questo proposito, le banalità che tutti avete già letto, sui quotidiani, oppure che avete ascoltato, alla TV, oppure che vi ha riferito al telefono il vostro cosiddetto “consulente” rischiano di mettervi in testa più confusione che chiarezza.

Noi di Recce’d, come sempre, vogliamo invece fornire un pratico contributo alla chiarezza: noi non abbiamo, a differenza di quasi tutti gli altri, alcun “prodotto” da propinarvi, e quindi da noi non ascolterete sciocchezze del tipo “i titoli azionari favorevoli a Biden” oppure “questo è il momento di investire” oppure ancora “con Biden il dollaro USA è destinato ad indebolirsi”.

Queste frasi fanno parte della (a voi già nota) retorica della “vendita di prodotti”, e non poggiano su alcuna sostanza: dietro non c’è analisi, non c’è valutazione, c’è soltanto il ben preciso disegno di vendervi qualche cosa, aggrappandosi all’ultima notizia apparsa in tv e all’ultima cosa della quale voi avete sentito parlare.

Facciamo un esempio molto concreto e di grande evidenza: nella settimana delle Elezioni 2020 negli Stati Uniti la Borsa ha recuperato, e si è trattato di un recupero molto ampio. L’indice più noto, lo S&P 500, è risalito a quota 3500 punti (immagine sopra).

Che cosa significa, questo? Che la Borsa è pro-Biden? Che la Borsa è contro Trump? Che le prospettive migliorano per l’occupazione e la produzione? Oppure di nuovo soltanto per i mercati finanziari?

C’è chi sostiene proprio questo. Leggiamo ad esempio un articolo che è stato pubblicato giovedì scorso.

One reason the stock market soared in its post-Election Day trading session may be that it prefers political gridlock to the so-called blue wave.

To be sure, the outcomes of the presidential race and many congressional races are not yet known. But it increasingly is looking as though gridlock is a winner. Prior to the election, in contrast, some oddsmakers had said there was a three-out-of-four chance that the Democrats would emerge with control of not only the presidency but both houses of Congress.

Historically, that configuration has been associated with more or less average stock market returns — 9.8% annualized for the S&P 500 since 1945, as you can see from the accompanying chart. But when there is a Democratic president and a split Congress — the outcome that seems most likely as this is written — the stock market has performed significantly better (13.6% annualized).

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite   on Wednesday each turned in their best post-Election Day rally on record.

The likely reason that Wall Street likes gridlock is that it reduces the possibility that any major policy changes will take effect. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, noted in an email to clients that the increasingly likely gridlock “lessens the prospects for an increase in regulations and taxes.” In addition, he added, the gridlock reduces the likelihood of “additional fiscal stimulus” — and that reduced likelihood in turn eases potential inflationary pressures down the road.

To be sure, we need to be careful not to place undue importance on the pattern depicted here That’s because, as my MarketWatch colleague William Watts quoted a money manager as saying: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell will remain the “most powerful man in Washington” regardless of who wins the Presidency or controls the Senate. That’s just another way of saying that monetary policy may be more important than political control of the White House and Congress, both to the economy in general and the stock market in particular.

In addition, we also need to be careful not to ascribe meaning to what may be random fluctuations in the market. We should never forget that many, if not most, of the stock market’s daily gyrations are statistical noise.

Still, a greater-than-2% rally in the S&P 500, along with a nearly 4% rally in the Nasdaq, seems large enough to demand explanation. Gridlock is the obvious reason.

L’articolista mette come vedete tutte e due le mani avanti, prende le distanze, inserisce dei distinguo. Ma alla fine, parlando di cose pratiche come gli investimenti, noi dobbiamo chiederci: le cose stanno avvero così?

A nostro giudizio, assolutamente no: per i mercati finanziari, il risultato elettorale non significa nulla, di tutto questo. Lo vedremo, tutti insieme, già a partire da domani. E chi ve lo racconta, chi cerca di convincervi, vi sta semplicemente … intortando.

I fatti sono questi: temendo un caos elettorale, nelle utile settimane molti operatori avevano aperto posizioni SHORT a copertura. Il caos non c’è stato, questi operatori hanno chiuso gli SHORT. Tutti gli altri operatori, la maggioranza, sono rimasti fermi davanti alla TV per vedere i conteggi. Nessuno si è mosso, tranne quelli che erano arrivati SHORT alla data delle elezioni.

Morale, solo loro hanno mosso i prezzi, e chiudendo gli SHORT i prezzi salgono. Fine della storia.

Non è cambiata alcuna prospettiva. Non è cambiata alcuna valutazione. Non è migliorato alcun clima sui mercati. Non c’è alcun aumento di ottimismo. C’è solo un fatto: alcuni operatori avevano fatto una scommessa, come si fa al Casinò, hanno sbagliato, hanno pagato. Fine. Non leggete quello che non c’è.

Recce’d ha fatto la scommessa opposta, ed ha detto ai propri Clienti: “non succederà granché per effetto del del risultato elettorale, e quindi noi faremo NULLA”.

Ed infatti, a fine settimana, ovvero venerdì 6 novembre 2020, la Borsa di New York era tornata dove stava un mese prima, e lo stesso il cambio del dollaro contro euro. L’oro trattava a 1950 dollari USA per oncia, il petrolio a 37,50 dollari USA al barile, il DAX stava a 12000 punti.

Nulla di nulla di nulla. Ma soprattutto: il rendimento del Treasury USA a 10 anni era tornato (e questo è davvero un fatto notevole) a 0,82%. Massimo degli ultimi sei mesi.

Questo, è il dato della settimana. Insieme con un secondo dato: ma vi siete accorti che lo yen contro dollaro USA scambia a 103,50? Vi rendete conto dell’importanza di questo livello?

Di questo tema operativo, e degli altri temi che sono realmente importanti, per voi lettori e per la gestione del portafoglio, trovate i nostri approfondimenti in The Morning Brief, se siete Clienti, fin da domattina.

Qui invece, nel nostro Post, noi regaliamo ai lettori spunti di riflessione che sono più ampi, meno operativi nell’immediato, anche se rimangono temi fondamentali per la gestione del portafoglio in titoli.

Esattamente due mesi fa, proprio qui nel Blog, Recce’d pubblicò un Post dal titolo forse un po’ enfatico (lo abbiamo ripreso anche oggi), ma a nostro giudizio appropriato all’ampiezza dell’argomento.

Vi suggeriamo di leggere i dati di questa tornata elettorale USA nella prospettiva di ciò che Recce’d scriveva due mesi fa, ed anche delle parole pronunciate di recente (un mese fa circa) da Ray Dalio, uno dei più conosciuti e stimati gestori di portafoglio del Pianeta. Le potete leggere, grazie a Recce’d, nel seguito di questo Post. A nostro giudizio, vi sarà più utile leggere queste righe (che non sono poche, e sono in lingua inglese: vi aspetta un piccolo sforzo) che spendere ore ed ore a cercare un senso alle parole dei politologi ed “esperti” che affollano i talk show in Italia. Se non altro, questo piccolo sforzo vi lascerà qualche cosa di utile, e non la nausea dei dibattiti in tv.

Vi anticipiamo oggi che questo argomento è uno dei sei filoni intorno ai quali svilupperemo nel 2021 il nostro Blog: Blog che, come già detto, non sarà più dedicato ad “argomenti a piacere” (come capitava nei temi delle scuole medie) ma si svilupperà intorno a sei filoni o “streams” (sapete della nostra debolezza anglofila) uno dei quali è esattamente quello di cui discute Dalio nell’intervista di Marketwatch che Recce’d ha scelto e messo da parte per voi, e che potete leggere ora.

Un’ultima, rapidissima, segnalazione: proprio nella cosa di questo articolo, potete trovare una affermazione di Dalio in merito al prossimo decennio, che per i mercati finanziari potrebbe essere un “decennio perduto”, che vuole dire dieci anni nei quali i maggiori indici di mercato stanno fermi, oppure scendono.

Anche noi la vediamo in questo modo: e aggiungiamo che invece di un decennio potrebbe trattarsi di due, o tre, decenni.

Recce’d fu avviata nel 2007 esattamente per questa ragione: per dare ai Clienti una via di uscita, quando si fosse presentata (ed era già allora inevitabile) una situazione come questa, una situazione nella quale stare lì seduti a guardare come fanno i private bankers, ed attendere che “i mercati salgano”, non è più una strategia di investimento (ma lo è mai stata?), ma soltanto un modo per perdere (molto) denaro, quel denaro faticosamente messo da parte.

Questa è la ragione per la quale LORO hanno già perso: e tutti, hanno già perso, a partire dai robot che pretendono di fare advisory, ai wealth managers ai private bankers ai family bankers, passando per il loro comune denominatore che è il promotore finanziario. Oggi, non possono più stare lì con le mani in grembo, vendendo al Cliente la favoletta che “tanto prima o poi salirà tutto”.

A noi, a voi, a tutti, occorre trovare un modo, una strada, perché i il prossimo “decennio perduto” per gli indici dei mercati finanziari non si trasformi in “denaro perduto” nel vostro portafoglio

Ray Dalio certainly is no radical idealist, but in his frequent writings and media appearances the veteran investor consistently calls for Americans to rewrite their longstanding contract with capitalism so that it is fairer and more generous to more people.

Otherwise, he predicts, life in the U.S. could become more difficult: mountainous debt that stunts economic growth; fewer opportunities for ordinary citizens to get ahead financially; and a worldwide lack of trust in the U.S. dollar that diminishes Americans’ purchasing power and could lower their standard of living.

Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge-fund firm, which has made him a billionaire. So it’s not surprising that he champions capitalism as a proven way to expand economic growth and living standards.

“Capitalism and capitalists are good at increasing and producing productivity to increase the size of the economic pie,” he says.

Then Dalio stands this tenet on its head. Capitalists don’t divide the economic pie very well, he says, and so today the capitalist system, the foundation of the U.S. economy, is not working efficiently and effectively enough for all.

“Capitalism also produces large wealth gaps that produce opportunity gaps, which threaten the system,” Dalio says — a system that has been and still is key to the health and success of U.S. business, workers, government and investors alike.

Unless the U.S. takes steps to make systemic repairs designed to provide greater opportunity for more Americans to achieve personal growth and financial security, the consequences likely will be painful for the country, as Dalio explains in this recent telephone interview, which has been edited for length and clarity:

MarketWatch: You have written and spoken about three big domestic and international problems facing the U.S. over the next five to 10 years and how a failure to address these challenges could threaten America’s standing in the world. What are these three pressing problems?

Ray Dalio: I look at it mechanically, like a doctor looking at a disease. If asked what is the issue here, I would say that it is a certain type of disease that has certain patterns which are timeless and universal, and the United States is broadly following that progression.

There are three problems that are coming together, so it’s important to understand them individually and how they collectively make a bigger problem.

There is a money and credit cycle problem, a wealth and values gap problem, and an emerging great power challenging the existing dominant power problem. What’s going on is an economic downturn together with a large wealth gap and the rising power of China challenging the existing power of the United States.

It’s a fact that there has been a weakening of the competitive advantages of the United States over the last couple of decades. For example, the United States lost a lot of the education advantage relative to other countries, our share of world GDP is reduced, the wealth gap has increased which has contributed to our political and social polarization.

But we haven’t lost all of our competitive advantages. For example in innovation and technology, the United States is still the strongest, but China is coming on very strong and at existing rates will surpass the United States. Militarily, the U.S. is stronger but China also has come on very strong and is probably stronger in the waters close to China that include Taiwan and other disputed areas. Finances for both countries are challenging, but for the U.S. more so. The U.S. is in the late stages of a debt cycle and money cycle in which we’re producing a lot of debt and printing a lot of money. That’s a problem. As a reserve currency status, the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.14%  is still dominant though its being threatened by its central bank printing of money and increasing the debt production problem. 

‘The United States is a 75-year-old empire and it is exhibiting signs of decline.’

MarketWatch: Focusing on the money and credit problem, excessive debt can be a killer for businesses and families, but most people don’t seem to recognize that debt plays havoc with their country’s finances as well. Government runs the money printing press, which buys time, but eventually something’s got to give.

Dalio: If you look at the history — for example, the Dutch Empire, the British Empire — both experienced the creation of debt and the printing of money, less educational advantages, greater internal wealth conflict, greater challenges from rival countries. Every country has stress tests. If you look at British history, the development of rival countries led them to lose their competitive advantages. Their finances were bad because they had accumulated a lot of debt. So, after World War II those trends went against them. Then they had the Suez Canal incident and they were no longer a world power and the British pound is no longer a reserve currency.  These diseases almost always play out the same way.  

The United States’ relative position in the world, which was dominant in almost all these categories at the beginning of this world order in 1945, has declined and is exhibiting real signs that should raise worries. There’s a lot of baggage. The U.S. has a lot of debt, which is adding to the hurdles that typically drag an economy down, so in order to succeed, you have to do a pretty big debt restructuring. History shows what kind of a challenge that is.

I just want to present understanding and facts. There’s a life cycle. You’re born and you die. As you get older you can see certain things that are symptoms of being later on in life. To know the life cycle and to know that these symptoms are emerging is what I’m trying to convey. The United States is a 75-year-old empire and it is exhibiting signs of decline. If you want to extend your life, there are clear things you can do, but it means doing things that you don’t want to do.

‘Wealth cannot be created by creating debt and money.’

MarketWatch: Let’s put it bluntly: Is capitalism broken?

Dalio: I wouldn’t say broken as much as I’d say it has problems that have to be fixed. As I said, I’m not ideological, I’m mechanical. I look at everything operationally like a machine and what has been shown is that capitalism is a fabulous way of creating incentives and innovation and of allocating resources to create productivity. All successful countries have uses for it. For example, communist China has chosen capitalism, which has been essential to its growth.

But capitalism also produces large wealth gaps that produce opportunity gaps, which threaten the system in the ways we are seeing now. Wealth gaps give unfair advantages to the children of rich people because they get a better education, which undermines the equal opportunity notion. As the number of people who get equal opportunity diminishes, this reduces the possibility of finding talented people in that population, which isn’t fair and undermines productivity. Then the have-nots want to tear down the capitalist system at a time of bad economic conditions. That dynamic has always existed in history and it’s happening now. 

The capitalist system is based on profit-seeking being the resource allocation system, which generally works well but doesn’t always. So, capitalism and capitalists are good at increasing and producing productivity to increase the size of the economic pie, but they’re not good at dividing the economic opportunity pie. Socialists are generally not good at increasing productivity and the size of the economic opportunity pie, but they are better at dividing the pie. 

We now have too much emphasis on distributing wealth and getting it from producing debt and printing money, and not enough from increasing productivity. Wealth cannot be created by creating debt and money. We have to be productive together, so we have to look at the good investments that we can make together that make total sense, like in education, and create equal opportunity in order to be productive.

We have to be in this together. The system needs to be reengineered to do this. But if we don’t do this engineering well, we’re going to spend in an unlimited way and deal with that by creating debt that won’t ever be paid back, and we will risk losing the reserve currency status of the dollar. If we get into that position — and we’re very close — things will get much worse because we are living on borrowed money that’s financing our consumption. 

‘Within the next five years you could see a situation in which foreigners who have been lending money to the United States won’t want to.’

MarketWatch: About the dollar being threatened as the world’s reserve currency — what does “close” mean, and what would the decline of this status mean for Americans?

Dalio: Within the next five years you could see a situation in which foreigners who have been lending money to the United States won’t want to, and the dollar would not be as readily accepted for making purchases in the world as it is now.

We have to realize that we’re spending more than we’re earning. Every individual, every company and every country has an income statement and a balance sheet. The income statement is how much is your earnings are relative to your expenses. If your earnings are greater than your expenses, great, you will increase your balance sheet. If your earnings are less than your expenses, then you have to draw on your balance sheet. 

The United States doesn’t have a good income statement and balance sheet in dealing with the rest of the world. It is running a deficit to the rest of the world that is financed by borrowing money so that we are producing liabilities. Our living standards are based on our spending, not on our income statement or balance sheet. If the U.S. loses that ability and it doesn’t force itself to be more productive, one day it will lose that ability to borrow and then will have to cut spending, which is painful.

When that pain happens at a time when you have the population at each other’s throats over money, that’s a toxic combination. People can’t take a downturn and have less buying power. So, necessarily the poor will have to be getting money from the rich and the rich are going to want to prevent that, and then if it gets bad enough, that it messes up productivity. 

Read: The Fed is ‘fighting the last battle,’ and here are the risks to its new strategy

Also read: This new ETF is made for “black-swan” moments like now

‘When the causes people are fighting for are more important to them than the system that binds them together, the system is in jeopardy.’

MarketWatch: What steps do politicians and business leaders need to take now to create and implement reforms that will fortify the U.S. balance sheet and the dollar’s status?

Dalio: In brief, productivity and equal opportunity are most needed. If we could at least agree that we must have these things, that would be great. What we have now is a situation in which we’re fighting each other, we are not providing equal opportunity, and we are losing our productivity gains. 

One of the greatest problems is that everybody’s fighting for their cause. When the causes people are fighting for are more important to them than the system that binds them together, the system is in jeopardy. This seems to now be happening. Everybody has their cause and they’re almost losing sight of the overall picture. Democracy depends on compromise. It’s the notion of compromise and working together and being able to have a negotiation to get what the most people want rather than have one side beat the other.

You really have to take the relative parties and make them agree on what’s going to be best. The group has got to be bipartisan and they have to be knowledgeable. Bring together parties of opposing ideologies who are also knowledgeable, not just smart but who are on the ground, to come up with a  plan together that all can support so that we’re productive, increasing the size of the pie and dividing it well. It would be great if whoever the president is could draw upon people from both parties and different perspectives.

MarketWatch: As Americans prepare for a presidential election in November, the three major problems you mentioned earlier would seem to be important factors for voters to consider.

Dalio: Yes. The world is going to change in the next five years in shocking ways in relation to the three big issues we have been talking about. 

First, there’s a debt-money cycle — what is the value of money? What will happen to the debt? Will the dollar retain its value? The finances of this — who is going to pay for it? How? What will work? That’s number one.

Second, the wealth, opportunity and values gaps will have to be dealt with. Are we going to be at each other’s throats in a way that is harmful or are we going to be working together even if things get worse? 

Third is the rising of a great power in China to challenge the existing power of the United States. Will this be well handled?

We will be dealing with these issues in the next presidential term, which will have a huge effect on our outcomes. The last time those three things existed as they do now was the 1930 to 1945 period. That’s the last time you had zero interest rates and money printing. That’s the last time you had the wealth and political gaps as large as they are today, and it was the last time you had rising powers challenging the existing world order. This and many analogous times before it help to give us perspective. 

‘Worry as much about the value of your money as you worry about the value of your investments.’

MarketWatch: These and other domestic and international challenges will clearly affect Americans financially. What would be a smart, proactive strategy for investors to both protect a portfolio and take advantage of market opportunities?

Dalio: First, worry as much about the value of your money as you worry about the value of your investments. The printing of money and the debt should make you aware of that. That’s why financial asset prices have gone up — stocks, gold — because of the debt and money creation. You don’t want to own the thing you think is safest — cash. 

Second, know how to diversify well. That includes diversification of countries, currencies and assets, because wealth is not so much destroyed as it shifts. When something goes down, something else is going up so you have to look at all things on a relative basis. Diversify well and worry about the value of cash. 

Americans look at the value of everything in U.S. dollars, but they don’t look at the value of the dollar. You’re in an environment where you have to be cautious about that, because the easiest way out for government is to do what the U.S. just did, which is to borrow and print a lot of money. They don’t have to get it from anyone, because when they raise taxes they have to get it from somebody and that somebody squawks. The population doesn’t pay much attention to the debt and the printing of money. They all appreciate the giving of money. So you hear the population say, “I need more money,” and get angry if they don’t get it. So you’ve got to give them more money, and it’s easier not to take it away from someone else. 

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned the conflict between the U.S. and China could develop into a “capital war” which would hit the dollar.

“There’s a trade war, there’s a technology war, there’s a geopolitical war and there could be a capital war — that’s the reality,” Dalio said on Fox’s “Sunday Morning Futures.” “If you say by law, don’t invest in China or even possibly withholding the payment of bonds that the United States owes payment on in China, these things are possibilities and they have big implications, such as for the value of the dollar because premarket investors are not used to having those things dictated by the government,” he said. The Bridgewater Associates founder added that these difficult questions had to be “well-addressed” and it was a challenge for the government to get the policy right. The hedge fund firm laid off several dozen employees across the company this month.

The U.S. dollar has slipped in recent months — the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of six rivals, reached a 22-month low on Friday and fell lower again on Monday to two-year lows. On March 22, the index hit a more-than-three year intraday high.

When asked whether he was worried about the dollar, Dalio warned the U.S. was its “own worst enemy” and that he was concerned about the “soundness of our money.”

“You can’t continue to run deficits, sell debt or print money rather than be productive and sustain that over a period of time.

“If we don’t work together to do the sound things, to be productive, to earn more than we spend, to build the stability of our currency and build a good balance sheet, we are going to decline,” he added.

‘Even if overall profits recover, some companies will die or their shares will devalue along the way. Left with lower levels of profits and cash shortfalls, companies are likely to come out on the other side of the coronavirus more indebted.’

That’s part of the reason why Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund, issued a warning to clients this week that equity investors could be facing a “lost decade” in terms of returns.

“Globalization, perhaps the largest driver of developed world profitability over the past few decades, has already peaked,” Bridgewater said in a note obtained by Bloomberg News. “Now the U.S.-China conflict and global pandemic are further accelerating moves by multinationals to reshore and duplicate supply chains, with a focus on reliability as opposed to just cost optimization.”

Intel Corp. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing were cited in the note as two examples of high-profile technology companies that plan to build their production facilities in the U.S., despite the higher costs that will pinch margins.