Tre mesi alla fine del 2019: guardiamo oltre le Banche Centrali

Via avevano detto e scritto di aspettare la BCE. Via avevano detto e scritto di guardare alla Federal Reserve. Vi avevano garantito che coi tagli ai tassi ufficiali sarebbe cambiato tutto.

Voi ci avete creduto?

Perché … erano tutte balle.

Poi però è successo questo.

New York SEPTEMBER 17, 2019

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced plans to inject another $75bn into the US financial system when trading resumes on Wednesday, a day after making its first such intervention in more than a decade to alleviate funding pressures in short-term lending markets. The cost of borrowing cash overnight via repurchasing agreements, known as repos, surged on Tuesday morning to as high as 10 per cent, a more than fourfold increase from Monday morning, according to Refinitiv data.

A senior executive at a large US bank said the sharp rise in the so-called repo rate, reflected a “pretty sizeable dislocation between funding needs and funding” in a key portion of the US money market. Repos are vital to the financial system because they give companies access to cash overnight using US Treasuries as collateral. Ashish Shah, co-chief investment officer for fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, described the abrupt tightening of the US money market as a “big deal”. “When things like this happen it increases the uncertainty and leaves fixed income markets jittery. And that is the job of central banks to avoid Ashish Shah, Goldman Sachs “When things like this happen it increases the uncertainty and leaves fixed-income markets jittery. And that is the job of central banks to avoid,” he said.

The sharp rise in the repo rate created a predicament for the Fed just as top policymakers were meeting in Washington to make a decision on monetary policy because it pushed up the central bank’s benchmark interest rate. The so-called federal funds rate rose to 2.25 per cent, the very top of the range the central bank targets, from 2.14 per cent at the end of last week. In response, the New York Fed, which conducts market operations for the central bank, launched an operation to “help maintain the federal funds rate within the target range”. The New York Fed made up to $75bn available through a repo auction in which the Fed accepts Treasuries and other securities as collateral, and in exchange, provides cash. The facility had not previously been used at such a scale since 2008.

The bank had to cancel the operation on the first attempt due to “technical issues”. On the second effort, primary dealers — big banks that act as trading counterparties of the Fed — tapped the facility for $53bn. Recommended Federal Reserve Why did the repo market’s wheels stop turning? The operation appeared to have succeeded in calming the money markets. The repo rate tumbled soon after the New York Fed announced its action. The New York Fed said on Tuesday afternoon that it would repeat the operation on Wednesday morning during a 15-minute window before 8:30am, again offering to inject up to $75bn into financial market.

Bank executives and analysts said several factors were behind the abrupt rise in the repo rate. Lenders’ reserves above legally required amounts have been declining since the Fed ended its bond-buying programme in 2014, reducing the amount of cash they are willing to lend through repo operations. The system came under additional stress in recent days as companies pulled cash out to pay tax bills. More cash left the system as investors settled Treasury purchases after a flurry of recent issuance. We think that the culprit is the scarcity of bank reserves, which are the only asset that provides banks with intraday liquidity TD Securities “We think that the culprit is the scarcity of bank reserves, which are the only asset that provides banks with intraday liquidity,” said TD Securities. “Reserves have been declining since 2014 and we expect them to decline further as Treasury’s cash balance increases and currency in circulation grows.” A senior executive in the repo operation of a big US bank added that the recent issues were not the same as the causes of spikes in overnight lending rates during the financial crisis. “This is a money markets phenomenon — not something that has to do with perceptions of credit quality at banks or anywhere else,” he said.

Insomma: dai mercati (come accade sempre) è arrivata la risposta forte, chiara e definitiva. Il gioco, NON lo comandano i tagli dei tassi di interesse ufficiali.

E, beffa nella beffa, il segnale è arrivato esattamente nella settimana nella quale prima la BCE e poi la Federal Reserve annunciavano i loro tagli dei tassi.

Ma non è servito: non è servito a nulla. Ed ora, la situazione rischia di andare fuori controllo.

Come gestire i propri investimenti, alla luce di questi nuovi fatti, da qui alla fine del 2019?

Prima di tutto, le cose voi dovreste già averle fatte. E da molti mesi. Perché è del tutto assurdo (e non vogliamo dire stupido … ma ci starebbe) muoversi DOPO, quando le cose sono già scritte sui quotidiani.

Nessuno al Mondo, infatti, ha la capacità di prevedere esattamente QUANDO. Alcuni però, come ad esempio Recce’d, basandosi su un metodo di lavoro ormai verificato e consolidato, sono in grado di dirvi COSA.

COSA vi imposta, cosa vi tocca più da vicino, cosa determina i risultati di investimento, e PRIMA che stia scritto in prima pagina sul vostro giornale.

Questo, Recce’d lo sa fare, e lo ha dimostrato in numerose occasioni ai propri Clienti.

Guardiamo allora alla fine del 2019: che cosa rimane da fare? Le indicazioni sarebbero numerose, e concrete, ma in questo Post noi ci limiteremo a citarne una.

Prima di ogni altra cosa, un consiglio pratico: dimenticate le Banche Centrali, perché sono ormai fuori dal gioco. Non soltanto per noi investitori non sono più un punto di riferimento, ma sono loro (le Banche Centrali di Powell, Draghi e Kuroda) oggi a chiedere a noi di dare loro dei punti di riferimento, attraverso i nostri acquisti e le nostre vendite, ovvero attraverso i mercati e i prezzi.

Una situazione di autentico caos.

Peraltro NON inattesa: ne scriveva così, già tre anni fa, e quindi nel 2016, in un best-seller poi famosissimo, un grande commentatore. Su questa base, oggi, dovete fare le vostre scelte di investimento.

…to what extent were central banks risking to transition from being a major part of the solution to becoming a significant part of the problem? That is to say, rather than facilitate an orderly gradual deleveraging in the context of a growing global economy, they would end up enabling an additional accumulation of debt that would leave Western economies mired in an even deeper growth malaise—one coupled with recurrent financial instability that would disrupt the economic well-being of countries in the rest of the world, including well-managed developing economies.