Occhio ai portafogli: Brexit era nulla, e invece questo ... (parte 1)

Fate bene attenzione alle notizie uscite tra ieri ed oggi, perché potrebbero avere implicazioni forti sulle performance dei vostri portafogli di fine anno: noi in questa sede ve ne segnaliamo due, e restiamo ovviamente a disposizione per tutti gli approfondimenti del caso. si tratta di temi che Recce'd porto all'attenzione fin dalla fine del 2015.

PRIMA NOTIZIA (da Bloomberg oggi, 12 luglio 2016): 

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at a meeting in Tokyo he wants to speed up the nation’s exit from deflation, underscoring his commitment to implementing fresh economic stimulus. "We are only halfway to the exit from deflation," Abe said at the start of the meeting at his residence Tuesday. "We want to be steadfast in accelerating our breakaway from deflation." Bernanke in April published on his Brookings blog that, while there were many challenges behind such a strategy, a “monetary financed fiscal program” shouldn’t be ruled out in the case of an emergency in the U.S. “Under certain extreme circumstances -- sharply deficient aggregate demand, exhausted monetary policy, and unwillingness of the legislature to use debt-financed fiscal policies -- such programs may be the best available alternative. It would be premature to rule them out,” Bernanke wrote.

SECONDA NOTIZIA (dal Financial Times di oggi):

If at first you don’t succeed in achieving your 2 per cent inflation target … jack it up to 4 per cent. That’s the view of Credit Suisse economists Hiromichi Shirakawa and Takashi Shiono, who think there’s little point in “further monetary easing of an incremental nature” from the Bank of Japan. If anything, the central bank should become more aggressive, they say. The pair think there’s merit in an approach were the BoJ sets a target for its Japanese government bond holdings and then promises to stick with it even if the inflation rate exceeds the current 2 per cent target by a considerable margin. CS thinks that in order to achieve longer-term fiscal sustainability, policymakers need to target sustained nominal GDP growth of 2 per cent, which would require sustained inflation of 1.5 per cent in terms of the GDP deflator.  The economists point out a GDP deflator of 1.5 per cent corresponds to an inflation rate slightly above 3 per cent CPI inflation. In other words, the central bank’s inflation target needs to be 3 per cent at the lower bound of its target range.

Sembra proprio che qualcuno stia per prendere una bastonata storica: e altre vie di uscita, secondo noi, non ce ne sono.