Quante cose ci dice il mercato in 12 ore

Oggi, lunedì 18, la giornata dei mercati finanziari era iniziata con il rosso in Asia, dopo il fallimento del vertice di Doha (petrolio) e lo scontro del vertice di Washington (sullo yen). Grande paura tra i commentatori per il vertice di Doha, come potete leggere qui sotto:

(dal web alle ore 8 italiane di lunedì 18 aprile) Where now for oil prices?

·         “On its own, we view this outcome as bearish for oil prices, given consensus expectations for a ‘soft guidance’ freeze at January production levels,” wrote a team of analysts at Goldman Sachs led by Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie, in a note to clients on Monday.

·         At some point in the next year, oil prices will start to draw support as slowly increasing demand catches up with slowly decreasing supply and the end of stock-building, said Kit Juckes, strategist at Société Générale, in a note to clients. But that point in time could still be some way off. “The fact that global oil demand has continued to increase is what separates this commodity from many others, but for now, the oil market is plagued by the presence of the rest of us — oil tourists — who drive the price up and down on sentiment about things like the Doha meeting,” he said.

·          “This is an extremely bearish scenario. Prices could touch $30 a barrel within days,” said Natixis analyst Abhishek Deshpande, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

·         Watch what happens Monday, as the extent of the oil-price fall will be telling for how deep the rout could get, Angus Nicholson, market analyst at IG, told clients in a note. “The key technical level in play is US$38, a break through this level is likely to see a major pullback this week. If hopes of a Doha deal were the only thing driving oil, then a pullback to around the US$30 level seems quite likely,” said Nicholson.

·         Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank: “I see the line in the sand on Brent crude as being $39. Below that, we could see a 10% extension to $35, driven by a further reduction in speculative longs,”

·         ” Watch for renewed oil-price volatility, as the next major OPEC event won’t come until June, with the cartel’s semiannual meeting in Vienna, Austria, said Mike van Dulken, head of research, and Augustin Eden, analyst at Accendo.

·         “This leaves the market reaction early this week as uncertain, with risks skewed to a sharp selloff only should the Kuwait disruption prove much smaller than suggested so far,” said Courvalin and Currie.

La differenza, tra un gestore di portafoglio e ... un'altra cosa, sta proprio qui: nel leggere queste frasi, nel leggere centinaia di commenti, e poi nel sapere che cosa fare in pratica, e sapere come operare sui portafogli. Perché poi si esce, si va magari a mangiare un gelato, ed alle 18 italiane vedi il petrolio sopra i 40$ e l'indice Dow Jones sopra i 18000 punti, dove non tornava dal luglio 2015. Ci sono molte indicazioni, per un vero gestore, in una giornata come quella che si sta per chiudere.