Il soft landing e le probabilità di recessione
A tutti noi piace ricevere regali.
Ad esempio, ai lettori del suo Blog, ormai da dieci anni Recce’d regala lavoro, regala il suo lavoro.
O meglio, una parte del suo lavoro, lavoro dal quale molti lettori hanno però ricavato concrete indicazioni, sia per raggiungere nuovi guadagni sia per limitare le proprie minusvalenze.
Ovvio che noi non regaliamo, ai lettori del Blog, per intero il nostro lavoro: sarebbe materialmente impossibile.
Ogni lavoro, infatti, implica dei costi.
E i costi sono tanto più grandi, quanto è accurato, approfondito, quotidiano il lavoro di analisi, di valutazione, e di simulazione sui prezzi degli asset finanziari, e ancora prima (è indispensabile) sui dati economici, e sulle notizie della geopolitica, della politica, della società.
Nessuno, noi crediamo, tra i nostri lettori è così semplicione da credere che per scrivere, in una sede pubblica, ed anche qui nel Blog, diciotto mesi fa, di
inflazione non transitoria
stagflazione
Anni Settanta
recessione
noi di Recce’d ci siamo accomodati su una terrazza a Portofino, aspettando di vedere tramontare il sole, e aspettando al tempo stesso che improvvisamente un’idea illuminasse la nostra serata.
Ecco dove sta il vantaggio dei lettori del Blog: si appropriano gratuitamente di un lavoro che, a loro, viene fornito gratuitamente.
I Clienti di Recce’d, oltre che a questo lavoro, accedono poi alla parte più importante. Come si trasformano, quando, in che quantità, le indicazioni che trovate qui nel Blog in scelte di portafoglio?
Come si costruisce un portafoglio in titoli? E sulla base di quale strategia di investimento, poi, lo si modifica?
Ovviamente, non si tratta di una attività che può essere effettuata in un dato giorno, mese anno: non ha senso pensare di decidere “oggi, e per i prossimi cinque anni”.
Si tratta invece di una attività che va effettuata ogni giorno: ma proprio ogni giorno.
Ogni investitore, se intende essere consapevole delle proprie scelte sugli investimenti, e quindi sui propri soldi, deve necessariamente tenere conto di tutto ciò che accade, e modificare sia le sue valutazioni sia le sue scelte operative sulla base di ciò che accade.
Un esempio concreto: voi lettori, oggi, che valutazioni afte sull’argomento “soft landing”? Certamente, ne avrete già letto, sul vostro quotidiano, oppure almeno sentito parlare, al TG economia.
Noi di Recce’d, che cosa pensiamo? In estrema sintesi, lo abbiamo già spiegato, proprio qui nel Blog, sette giorni fa.
Con i nostri Clienti? Beh … con loro c’è occasione di esaminare questo tema, insieme con altri temi, ogni mattina.
Allo scopo di non ripetere cose che noi di Recce’d abbiamo già detto, ed anche allo scopo di fornire ai nostri lettori un contributo nuovo, ritrovate qui sotto un articolo della prestigiosa rivista Barron’s pubblicato soltanto poche ore fa: il tema è il “soft landing”, e noi vi abbiamo messo in evidenza i passaggi sui quali oggi vi è indispensabile fermarvi a riflettere.
Su che cosa riflettere? Su tre cose in particolare:
sui numerosi spunti, legati all’attualità (della politica, della geopolitica, e dei dati) a cui si fa cenno in questo articolo
sul fatto che, solo sei mesi fa, il vostro private banker, il vostro wealth manager, il vostro robo advisor, il vostro familiy banker, vi ha più volte garantito che “lo scenario di recessione non è neppure lontanamente da prendere in esame, a proposito del portafoglio titoli”: oggi però, sembra che sia rimasto solo quello
e infine, sul fatto che solo 18 mesi fa in Occidente, è stata lanciata la più grande manovra di “stimolo” all’economia della Storia dell’Uomo: e quindi? Sarà stato anche il più grande errore di politica economica della Storia dell’Uomo? L’articolo che segue sembra dire esattamente questo: quello “stimolo” enorme, impressionante, BIG, beh … non ha risolto proprio un bel nulla, ed anzi …
Spiraling inflation and an aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve could be enough to tip the U.S. economy into a recession even in the best of times. Add an Eastern European war into the mix, and the risk of a downturn spikes.
Major economic forecasters see a roughly 1 in 3 chance of a recession within the next 12 to 18 months, not-insignificant odds that have more or less doubled since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February. That’s in part because history shows the Federal Reserve does not have a stellar record of avoiding a recession when it hikes rates.
Guiding the economy to a safe landing amid mounting turbulence—including an oil price shock, severe geopolitical risk and a flattening yield curve—would be one of the greatest policy maneuvers in the central bank’s recent history. And the Fed does have a significant factor in its favor: the U.S. economy remains fundamentally strong. Consumers are flush and businesses are in hiring mode. Some economists and Fed officials contend that could be enough for it to withstand a series of interest rate increases.
But the fallout from the war adds a new dimension.
“Prior to the invasion, when we were just talking about policy normalization at the Fed, I was thoroughly convinced the economy could absorb what the Fed was planning to do,” says RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas. While that’s still a possibility, he adds, “what I’m uncertain about is the external shock that has little to do with economic or financial fundamentals, and everything to do with geopolitics.”
At the center of the debate over whether it’s time to prepare for a recession is the Fed and its indication that it plans to raise interest rates at least six more times this year in an attempt to slow down rising inflation—and officials have recently hinted they could move faster than that. Steep rate-hike cycles have historically been catalysts for economic downturns, because moving aggressively to slow the economy carries an inherent risk of going too far, stalling growth and driving up unemployment.
Alan Blinder, a former Fed economist and current Princeton University professor who has a forthcoming book on monetary and fiscal policy history over the past 60 years, says the Fed has just once in the last 11 tightening periods nailed a “perfect soft landing,” which came in the early 1990s. But twice more, in the mid-1960s and early 1980s, the central bank raised interest rates without sparking an official recession—and such “soft-ish” landings, he said in a recent presentation, are not all that rare.
Still, eight recessions out of 11 tightening cycles is reason for concern, and some economists say the risk now is significant in part because the Fed waited so long to act on inflation—consumer prices have risen 7.9% year over year, and are expected to keep climbing—that it has to tighten quickly in order to get things under control. That in turn could carry a greater chance of overdoing it.
“This is the biggest disconnect, historically, between current Fed policy and their goals of price stability,” says Stephen Roach, a former chief economist at Morgan Stanley now a senior fellow and lecturer at Yale University. “I can’t think of any time when they have been faced with the type of tightening they have to contemplate in the current environment where they’ve been able to sidestep a recession.”
The compounding factor is the Russia-Ukraine war, which could keep oil and other commodity prices elevated for months to come and risks bringing down global demand. A prolonged period of higher oil prices would mean U.S. households are forced to redirect spending from discretionary goods and services to necessities—gas and groceries, primarily—which slows the economy by itself.
At the same time, continued supply chain disruptions stemming from both the war and Covid-related factory shutdowns in China could keep prices elevated even longer. All of which would lessen the chances that the Fed is able to get a handle on inflation soon.
The U.S. remains more insulated from the impact of Russian sanctions than Europe does. But still, “if there’s significant global financial market stress above and beyond what we’re seeing today, if there’s significant deterioration in global economic conditions, it’s hard to see how the U.S. economy fully escapes that,” says Robert Rosener, senior U.S. economist with Morgan Stanley.
Despite the mounting risks facing the U.S. economy at home and abroad, however, there are a number of reasons to believe the economy could grind on even amid a tightening and uncertain environment. The labor market is remarkably strong, with record levels of job openings, sustained demand for workers, a rising labor-force participation rate, and unemployment that has fallen to 3.8%, just 0.3 percentage point above its prepandemic low.
American consumers remain healthy, too, even as the cost of living rises, and an estimated 60% of households continue to hold on to excess savings built up during the pandemic. At the same time, home and stock portfolio values have soared, and overall household net wealth climbed more than 37% between the first quarter of 2020 and fourth quarter of 2021, Federal Reserve data shows. Growth has been so strong that even a sizeable slowdown this year could still leave the economy humming along.
“I can’t think of any time when they have been faced with the type of tightening they have to contemplate in the current environment where they’ve been able to sidestep a recession.”
— Stephen Roach, former Morgan Stanley chief economist
Take Morgan Stanley’s recent gross-domestic product estimates, for example. Economists with the firm recently adjusted their GDP forecast to reflect higher commodity prices and tighter financial conditions, lowering it to 4% growth for 2022, down from 4.6% at the start of the year. “That’s a good chunk that we’ve taken out of growth to reflect recent developments,” Rosener says. “But you look at that, and it’s hard not to see an economy that has a buffer to absorb some of these things.”
The hope among some economists is that the economy’s underlying strength will be enough to keep any recession relatively shallow and short-lived, if not fend it off entirely. Brusuelas, who sees a roughly 20% chance of recession, expects any slowdown to be of the “garden variety”—nine to 12 months of a household-driven contraction sparked by a decline in consumer purchasing power as commodity prices spike.
Tempering the pain is likely to be the U.S. labor market, where employers who have spent more than a year competing to hire and retain workers are unlikely to let them go amid a mild slowdown or recession, economists say. The layoff rate hit an all-time low of 0.8% in December and climbed only 0.1 percentage point in January despite the Omicron-induced economic shutdowns, government data shows—a possible signal of how employers might react to the next slowdown as well. A delay in widespread layoffs would minimize the hit to employment, thereby limiting the damage to consumer demand and the broader economy.
“Businesses know that their problem cutting through the business cycle, through the pandemic, through any disruption, is going to be labor and finding qualified workers,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “They’re loath to reduce payrolls.”
Still, while the economy for now looks steady, the level of uncertainty around the world means the status quo could change quite quickly, says Roach, the Yale economist. “We need to be cautious in avoiding overcomplacency,” he says, “based on what we perceive to be a fairly balanced situation today