Come i nostri Clienti sanno benissimo, noi in Recce’d gestiamo i portafogli in titoli ANCHE tenendo ben presente il rischio: noi giudichiamo che sia del tutto NON professionale commentare fatti come l’esplosione dell’epidemia del marzo 2020 con parole come “del resto, chi poteva prevederlo?”.

A chi dice cose del genere, ci sentiamo di rispondere che se non sei in grado di impostare il portafoglio tenendo conto ANCHE di fatti del genere, beh … secondo noi (e tanti altri) devi proprio cambiare mestiere.

Oggi, nel giugno 2021, chi (e sono tanti) fa finta di non vedere i dati relativi alla Variante Delta a nostro giudizio è uno che rischia coi soldi degli altri, un incosciente. Oppure, e sarebbe peggio, è molto poco intelligente.

Questi che in questo Post commentiamo sono fatti importanti sia per il breve termine, sia per le prospettive di medio e lungo termine dei nostri e vostri soldi, alle quali Recce’d ha dedicato la scorsa settimana nel Blog un nuovo Longform’d, che vi invitiamo a leggere

Per i lettori interessati, abbiamo disponibili su richiesta una serie di papers (documenti di ricerca) che completano la nostra analisi del prossimo decennio

A proposito della Variante Delta, si sono già espressi numerosi commentatori, e tra questi anche alcune vere e proprie “superstar” delle banche di investimento: ad esempio, Marko Kolanovic di JP Morgan, che si è affrettato a garantire che la Variante Delta non avrà alcuna influenza sui mercati finanziari.

Quando parla Marko Kolanovic, oppure Goldman Sachs oppure Morgan Stanley, o qualsiasi altra banca di investimento, noi in Recce’d consultiamo regolarmente il nostro ordinatissimo archivio, per vedere quello che dicevano e scrivevano le medesime persone in passato: ad esempio, nel mese di aprile del 2020.

Come leggete qui sopra, agli inizi di aprile 2020 Marko Kolanovic aveva annunciato al Mondo “il picco delle morti per COVID”. Perché lo aveva fatto? Lui forse è un epidemiologo? No, non lo è. Allora, perché lanciarsi in affermazioni anto nette da apparire, a distanza di 15 mesi, ridicole?

La nostra riposta è che quello che conta, per Marko, ma pure per Goldman Sachs, per Morgan Stanley, per UBS e per Credit Suisse (non le citiamo tutte, ma le conoscete) è quello che noi abbiamo sottolineato con il colore blu nell’immagine sopra. Quello: non l’epidemia, e soprattutto non i risultati dei Clienti.

Per questa ragione, noi in Recce’d non ci fidiamo di quello che dice Marko Kolanovic né ci fidiamo di quello che scrivono le altre banche di investimento, Molto più utili, a nostro giudizio, le analisi e le considerazioni di altri analisti e commentatori: un esempio di queste si sull’influenza della Variante Delta sui mercati finanziari ve lo regaliamo qui di seguito, invitandovi a farvi poi anche una domanda.

La domanda è la seguente: è ragionevole pensare alla comparsa di una “Variante Delta” anche sui mercati finanziari nel secondo semestre 2021? La gestione del rischio, nell’ambito della gestione del portafoglio titoli, impone di rispondere prima di tutto a questa domanda.

Over the weekend, Sydney was put under a mandatory stay-at-home order for two weeks in response to the risk posed by the Delta variant of Covid-19. This came as a surprise to many, especially those who rightly view Australia as having been among the best in managing Covid, with its very low infections, hospitalizations and deaths.

Australia was not the only recent Covid surprise in advanced countries. Israel, long a vaccination leader, reimposed an indoor-mask requirement last Friday. Once again, the catalyst was the Delta variant. Then there was the U.K., which, other than India, has been battling longest against Delta. According to government reports, the number of Delta infections rose 46% in just one week. Indeed, whether it is the evidence from there or the reactions of Australia and Israel, four issues should be front and center for many more countries, including the U.S., which need to realize that new Covid risks are likely and do not respect borders.

The ability of the Delta variant to spread fast and deep has surprised many. It is the most infectious variant so far, especially among the nonvaccinated segments of the population. But it also hits the vaccinated, including the doubled-jabbed who, according to U.K. data, made up as much as 20% of those infected with Delta.

Health Consequences

Fortunately, the health consequences of the Delta variant in advanced countries appear less severe so far. This is due in part to a better understanding of Covid-19 some 18 months into the pandemic. But most important is vaccination: While it has not totally broken the link between infections on the one hand and hospitalizations and deaths on the other, it has significantly weakened it. So far, a lot fewer of those testing positive have ended up in hospital or worse because they were vaccinated. Uncertainty remains, however, about the risks of “long Covid” effects.

Policy Reactions

Government policy reactions have varied significantly, and not just because of different vaccination rates. Important behavioral judgments appear to be in play as well as issues about policy acceptance and effectiveness.

Sydney, with a relatively low vaccination rate, took strong measures despite a very low absolute number of infections. Israel and the U.K. have high vaccination rates but have differed in their reactions, with Israel tightening guidelines but the U.K. maintaining its reopening narrative. (England did delay by a month the final stage of the reopening roadmap, with similar actions by Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales; importantly, it has also stepped up in the already-impressive vaccination effort there, with pop-up vaccination centers that don’t require a reservation appearing nationwide.)

Economic circumstances

As of now, the incremental economic damage associated with the Delta variant in advanced countries appears limited, especially when compared with India, where it originated and has been causing widespread human tragedies.

Though there are recent examples around the world of significant disruptions because of new waves of Covid (Bangladesh being this weekend’s most striking example), there is little to suggest as of now that Delta in itself is particularly damaging economically and financially in the advanced world. While it is still early when it comes to the potential global spread, and it will spread unfortunately, many countries have become much better at managing through these waves.

No matter how the four factors evolve, it is hard to deny two general but important conclusions.

First, Delta is yet another illustration that the terrible Covid pandemic will not end suddenly. Instead, the world will need to continue to adapt to the reality of living with an endemic for a while — that is, a virus that is proving hard to fully eradicate. With improved private and public health practices and guidelines, living in this age of an endemic virus can be a lot less threatening to lives and livelihoods.

Governments must reinforce their efforts to win all three races in this historical pushback against Covid. Winning just one or two is simply not sufficient. Specifically, victory is needed in crushing infections, minimizing variants and accelerating full vaccination. It is not just a government responsibility, as important as this is. It also places an important obligation on individuals to adhere consistently and fully to what the U.K. government has labeled “hand, face, space” health practices.

Second, there is no sure way for one country to protect itself from Covid threats coming from outside. Think of this weekend’s Sydney news. Along with New Zealand, Australia has taken the most restrictive approach to cross-border human interactions among the advanced economies, imposing quite a range of inconveniences on citizens. It has enforced strict limits on inward and outward travel, subjected those traveling to Australia to quotas, as well as harsh quarantine rules and practices, and has a population that has been impressively understanding, supportive and compliant. Yet Sydney was again shut down, and not as a quick circuit breaker but for a longer period.

The only way to ensure well-being is to go back to the mantra that “no one is safe until everyone is safe.” Further vigilance in advanced countries needs to be accompanied with greater assistance to poorer and less-well-organized countries to improve everyone’s durable protection against Covid.-Bloomberg

Secondo semestre 2021: la gestione del rischio