Banche Centrali invincibili ed infallibili

Fin dallo scorso mese di agosto, Recce’d ha scelto di mettere all’attenzione del pubblico quello che oggi risulta essere il tema centrale per tutti i mercati finanziari in tutto il Mondo.

Dopo undici mesi molto complessi, e per molti aspetti esasperanti e logoranti, oggi tutti i mercati sono guidati da un unico tema, un unico appiglio ed un’unica speranza. In tutto il Mondo, l’intera industria del risparmio, che potremmo anche definire la fabbrica dell’Ottimismo, è disperatamente impegnata convincere il pubblico dei risparmiatori e degli investitori, inclusi i grandi Investitori Istituzionali, che “le Banche Centrali faranno ancora di più”.

Anche se oggi, 5 novembre 2020, i dati dicono che non è vero, dicono che tutti quegli interventi di marzo ed aprile non hanno funzionato, dicono che la situazione non è “quella di prima”, dicono che la congiuntura sta peggiorando, dicono che abbiamo di fronte sei mesi difficilissimi .

Ma dopo … ah beh, dopo … eh si, dopo.

Oggi non conta: c’è sempre un dopo. Ricordate il “più grande accordo commerciale della Storia” di Trump? Era solo 12 mesi fa, e fu utilizzato per spingere la Borsa a New York a fare “nuovi record assoluti”..

Eravamo allora tra i pochissimi, a sostenere che quell’accordo non esisteva. Ed infatti non esiste, a 12 mesi di distanza. Noi vi aspettiamo qui, tra 12 mesi (ma ne basteranno sei) per leggere insieme dei successi e della riuscita delle “nuove cose” che faranno le Banche Centrali in risposta alla seconda ondata di COVID-19. E sarà (per noi) un grande piacere.

Recce’d ha investito tempo e risorse per illustrare ai lettori, del tutto gratuitamente, quali sono oggi le sfide che le Banche Centrali sono costrette ad affrontare: e (sorpresa!) l’epidemia di COVID-19 c’entra poco o nulla. Il COVID ha fatto da acceleratore, ma i problemi da risolvere, che rimangono irrisolti, sono i medesimi del 2019, del 2018, del 2017, del 2016. I risultati dei vostri portafogli (azioni, obbligazioni, materie prime e valute, e anche private equity) dipendono da questo. Solo da questo.

Non lo dice solo Recce’d, ovviamente. ne ha scritto su Bloomberg Bill Dudley, ex (potentissimo) Governatore della Federal Reserve, Governatore proprio della Fed di New York, e quindi l’uomo della Fed sui mercati finanziari.

La settimana scorsa Dudley ha pubblicato l’articolo che noi oggi vi riportiamo. Si collega in modo diretto sia al nostro primo Longform’d di agosto 2020, sia al secondo che pubblicammo nell’ottobre 2020.

Chi, tra i nostri lettori, presto tempo ed attenzione a quei due nostri Longform’d non farà fatica a seguire gli argomenti di Dudley, ed a collocarli nel contesto attuale in vista della prossima riunione della Federal Reserve del 15 e 16 dicembre prossimi.

Ma soprattutto, chi ha dedicato la propria attenzione ai due Longform’d e ha il tempo oggi di leggere questo articolo di Bill Dudley avrà pochi dubbi su come operare sul proprio portafoglio in titoli, in modo da evitare di andare a schiantarsi alla prossima curva del circuito.

Five Reasons to Worry About Faster U.S. Inflation

People and markets could be in for a surprise.

By Bill Dudley

3 dicembre 2020, 13:00 CET

Bill Dudley is a senior research scholar at Princeton University’s Center for Economic Policy Studies. He served as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York from 2009 to 2018, and as vice chairman of the Federal Open Mar

A lot of people believe that inflation in the U.S. is dead or, if not dead, in a state of suspended animation for the foreseeable future. They could be setting themselves up for an unpleasant surprise.

In official projections and market prices, it’s hard to see any concern about the possibility of excessive inflation. According to the Federal Reserve’s September Summary of Economic Projections, inflation won’t get back to the Fed’s 2% objective until 2023. The yields on different types of Treasury securities suggest that investors expect annual inflation to average 1.9% over the next decade — or an even lower 1.6% by the Fed’s preferred measure.

No doubt, inflation has been very low for a long time, despite extreme monetary stimulus. But is it right to believe so strongly that the trend will persist? I see a number of reasons inflation might come back much more quickly than the consensus suggests.

First, the onset of the pandemic in March and April drove prices down sharply — by half a percent, according to the Fed’s preferred measure (the price index for personal consumption expenditures, excluding food and energy). This has depressed year-over-year readings of inflation. But after April 2021, the lower readings will become the new basis for comparison, and year-over-year measures of inflation will jump.

Second, the development of effective vaccines will allow people to return to their normal spending patterns by the second half of 2021. The leisure and hospitality industry — including restaurants, hotels and airlines — will probably regain pricing power as demand recovers. Sharp price increases might even be needed to balance demand with the available supply, which the pandemic has undoubtedly diminished. These are unlikely to be offset by price decreases in areas that probably will see less demand, such as online streaming (Netflix) and videoconferencing (Zoom).

Third, the lingering effects of the pandemic will make it difficult for companies to meet increased demand by simply producing more with the same people and capital. When the crisis period ends, capital will not be allocated to its most productive uses: Many expansion projects and investments have been suspended and new demand patterns will likely emerge post-pandemic. Also, many workers will have left the hardest-hit sectors, making it difficult for businesses to find the labor needed to expand. Some businesses, such as restaurants, will simply have disappeared, reducing the capacity available to meet resurgent demand. 

Fourth, the Fed has revised its long-term monetary policy in a way that allows for more inflation. Previously, the central bank aimed to hit its 2% target regardless of how far or how long inflation had strayed from that objective in the past. Now the Fed wants inflation to average 2%, which means it will have to exceed 2% for a significant time to offset the chronic downside misses that have accumulated over the past decade.

Specifically, Fed officials have said that they won’t raise short-term interest rates until employment is at its maximum sustainable level, and inflation has reached 2% and is expected to go moderately higher for some time. This means they’re unlikely to respond to any inflation uptick until they expect it to be both persistent and sizable.

Fifth, the government is much more likely than it used to be to support the economy with added spending. Fiscal orthodoxy has shifted: Instead of worrying about rising federal debt burdens, economists now see much greater scope for aggressive action to offset significant shortfalls in demand. As a result, the government probably won’t want to remove fiscal stimulus as quickly as it did after the 2008 financial crisis (a move that led to a disappointingly slow recovery). That said, the Joe Biden administration might not be able to do what it wants if Republicans retain control of the U.S. Senate.

All told, inflation might be a greater danger precisely because it’s no longer perceived as such. Policy makers want to push it higher. Most households and businesses are not concerned about the risks. Once the pandemic abates, those risks will no longer be entirely on the downside. And given how completely financial markets have come to expect low inflation and interest rates, and how much support those expectations are providing to bond and stock prices, an upside surprise could prove nasty.