2020 in dettaglio: vicini al punto di svolta
Mohamed El-Erian
Mohamed El-Erian is the Chief Economic Adviser at Allianz. Before joining Allianz, he held positions as chief executive and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO and president and CEO of Harvard Management Company, the entity that manages Harvard’s endowment and related accounts. He was also a managing director at Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup in London and spent 15 years with the International Monetary Fund in Washington, DC. Dr. El-Erian has published widely on international economic and finance topics. His 2008 best-seller, When Markets Collide, was named a book of the year by «The Economist». He is a columnist for «Bloomberg View» and a contributing editor at the «Financial Times». His newest book – The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse – is another New York Times best-seller. Dr. El-Erian has served on several boards and committees, including the U.S. Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, and the New York Fed’s Investor Advisory Committee on Financial Markets. Since 2007, he has chaired Microsoft’s Investment Advisory Board. He holds a master’s degree and doctorate in economics from Oxford University. He is president-elect of Queens' College, Cambridge, senior adviser at Gramercy and professor of practice at Wharton.
Chi sia Mohamed El Erian i nostri lettori lo sanno da un decennio, e altri lettori lo hanno scoperto più di recente, quando lo hanno ritrovato in prima pagina sul Corriere della Sera (nel 2019, come abbiamo raccontato qui nel Post.
Noi utilizzeremo alcuni brani di una sua intervista della scorsa settimana per offrire ai lettori del Blog una anticipazione dei temi che ritroveremo nel 2020 come determinanti per la performance dei nostri portafogli.
In questo primo Post, iniziamo dalla domanda che tutti si pongono in questa fase finale del 2019: potrà andare ancora meglio di così? Oppure, siamo arrivati ad un “tipping point”?
Can it get any better than this? That’s the question investors are asking themselves after an exceptional year. Despite a slowdown in the global economy and increasing trade tensions, almost every asset class is up for the past twelve months.
Mohamed El-Erian is convinced that the world is nearing a tipping point. According to the internationally renowned economist who coined the term «New Normal», the faith of the global economy depends on a successful hand-off from monetary to fiscal policy and structural reforms. Otherwise, the world will sink into a mire of financial volatility and political collapse, he fears.
«As good as the ‹New Normal› was for the last ten years, I don’t think it will continue during the next ten years», says Mr. El-Erian in an extended interview with The Market.
In his view, Europe is getting much closer to a fateful junction. If the European economy hits stall speed, chances of a recession are increasing, Mr. El-Erian argues. Furthermore, he cautions that the U.S.-China deal will be a short-term truce since trade is no longer just about economics but also about national security.
Mr. El-Erian, investors are looking back at an amazing year with many turns and twists. What’s ahead for the financial markets in 2020?
There’s a tendency to what I call a «one issue market», meaning the market embraces a single issue and is influenced by that issue most of the time. For a long time, this issue used to be Central Banks, then it has evolved into trade. Trade will continue to be an important issue, even with the recent short-term truce. We have pressed the pause button on globalization. Now, the big question is if we press the play button again and continue to globalize as the market is assuming or if we step towards pressing the rewind button on globalization and deglobalize. That uncertainty is not going to go away. It’s going to be with us for the whole of 2020 because trade is no longer just about economics. It’s also about national security.
What do you mean by that? More restrictions against China when it comes to technology like the ban against Huawei?
Technology is at the forefront of that, because technology focuses on the issue of national security. But it’s just an illustration of a much bigger evolution: Because the trade dispute has lasted for so long, it has expanded to include things beyond economics.
What’s the endgame in this evolution?
I don’t know. I worry that we have entered a period of deglobalization and that’s concerning because neither the global economy nor the financial markets are wired for deglobalization. So I’m not as optimistic as others that the mini-deal between China and the U.S. will lead to a long-term resolution. We have weaponized the economic tools, and the minute you do that, it’s very hard to step back.
Why is it so hard to step back?
If you talk to people in Washington two things strike you: Number one, both parties agree on addressing long-term grievances they hold about how China practices certain elements of trade. These are grievances Europe has as well, namely intellectual property theft, forced transfer of technology and joint venture requirements. China has been slow in dismantling them. This is not an issue of President Trump, it’s something that unites Republicans and Democrats. Where they differ is on the method. Most people think that the US should have pursued a unified approach with Europe. The second thing that strikes you is this phrase «If not now, then when?» There’s a real possession that this is the time to press not just free trade, but a fairer trade system.