La resa dei conti (parte 2)

Nel corso del 2019, ed in più occasioni, vi abbiamo anticipato che questo 2019 risulterà essere un anno di svolta (epocale) anche per le Banche Centrali. Ed in particolare per la BCE e per la Federal Reserve.

La cosa sta diventando di tutta evidenza proprio in queste settimane, per le (notissime) vicende che Recce’d ha portato alla vostra attenzione nelle settimane scorse.

La prima vicenda è quella del “bazooka di Draghi”, che la stampa ed i TG in Italia hanno presentato a voi lettori in un modo che è del tutto irrealistico, e distorto.

I fatti di cui si è letto negli ultimi giorni confermano che la BCE è già arrivata ad un punto di rottura: in questo senso, l’uscita di scena di Draghe crea le circostanze perfette per una resa dei conti interna, e dubitiamo che Lagarde abbia la forza di mettere tutto a tacere.

Leggiamo in un articolo dal Financial Times delle forzature, e quindi delle rotture, che si sono registrate nell’ambito della BCE in settembre.

The European Central Bank decided to restart its bond-buying programme last month over the objections of its own officials, a further sign of how the move has reopened divisions within the institution. The bank’s monetary policy committee, on which technocrats from the ECB and the 19 eurozone national central banks sit, advised against resuming its bond purchases in a letter sent to Mario Draghi and other members of its governing council days before their decision, according to three members of the council.

The leaking of the confidential contents of the committee’s letter comes as opponents to Mr Draghi’s loose monetary policy fight a rearguard action to put pressure on Christine Lagarde for her to change course after she takes over at the ECB on November 1. It is one of the few occasions that the committee’s advice has not been followed in the eight years since Mr Draghi became president, a council member said. However, the committee’s opinion is not binding and has been ignored at least four times in as many years by the council, which is free to decide otherwise, an ECB official said. The ECB declined to comment.

The committee itself was split on restarting the bond purchases, which are known as quantitative easing (QE), after a nine-month hiatus in the €2.6tn programme. But a majority argued against it because the main reason for going ahead was to lower long-term interest rates and these had already fallen to record lows, the council members said. Their views echo criticism made by governing council members who have spoken out publicly against the decision to restart QE since last month’s meeting, including the heads of the French and Dutch central banks. The ECB has endured a bruising backlash since it announced plans to start buying €20bn of bonds a month from November. The move was part of a package of monetary-easing measures that included cutting interest rates further into negative territory and strengthening its guidance on how long the policies would last.

While the decision to cut interest rates to a record low of minus 0.5 per cent has grabbed headlines and been criticised by commercial bankers — such as the head of Deutsche Bank — it was widely supported within the governing council and the committee, where most opposition was over restarting bond purchases.

The heads of the German, French, Dutch, Slovenian and Estonian central banks — together representing more than half of the eurozone population and GDP — said they were opposed to the QE decision at last month’s meeting. Mr Draghi said after the meeting, however, that there was such a “clear majority” in favour of the package that they did not need to vote. Weekly podcast Sign up here to the new podcast from Gideon Rachman, the FT’s chief foreign affairs columnist, and listen in on his conversations with the decision-makers and thinkers from all over the globe who are shaping world affairs Before each monetary policy meeting of the governing council, several ECB committees prepare the ground by debating the options available and presenting the arguments in letters that are distributed to council members a few days before they gather.

Other committees at the central bank also expressed reservations about restarting QE. The legal committee pointed out that it could be harder for the ECB to defend itself against accusations that it was breaching EU rules forbidding monetary financing of governments if it was forced to raise the self-imposed limits on bond purchases. More detail on the debate within the governing council could come when the ECB publishes its account of last month’s meeting on Thursday. Senior ECB officials have been appealing for internal critics to tone down their disapproval. “There are 25 of us [on the governing council] and, for sure, there are sometimes different views, but when a decision is taken by a clear majority, it is important to defend it,” ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos told Market News on Wednesday. “It would be much better if we tried to reduce the level of surrounding noise.”

Quanto alla Federal Reserve, noi nelle scorse settimane abbiamo dedicato la massima attenzione alla vicenda dei tasse sui pronti-contro-termine, della quale i nostri Clienti hanno letto con largo anticipo i dettagli in The Morning Brief.

Oggi l’importanza di questa vicenda è sotto gli occhi di tutti: sono state spazzate via le interpretazioni fantasiose e un po’ sempliciotte sull’esistenza di una fantomatica “banca in crisi”, e oggi risulta chiaro a tutti che ad essere andata in crisi, in questa occasione è la Federal Reserve, che non ha più il controllo della sua stessa politica monetaria ed è costretta a riprendere le operazioni di QE quando gli operatori di mercato lo desiderano. La Fed non governa più la creazione di moneta.

Anche in questo caso, ci facciamo aiutare da un articolo pubblicato dal Financial Times per fare il punto di questa vicenda.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will begin purchasing Treasuries from next week and extend cash injections into short-term lending markets, in a bid to avoid a repeat of September’s volatility. The Federal Open Market Committee has instructed the New York Fed to begin buying short-dated Treasury bills at a rate of approximately $60bn per month, starting on October 15 and continuing through until the second quarter of next year. Jay Powell, Fed chairman, revealed plans this week for the central bank to resume purchases of Treasury bonds in an effort to grow the Fed’s balance sheet and facilitate trading in the short-term funding markets.

The move is aimed at increasing the amount of reserves bank’s hold at the Fed back to at least the level seen in early September, before short-term lending markets suffered a sharp rise in borrowing costs as cash became scarce. When the bills are purchased, they are paid for by crediting bank’s reserve accounts. The New York Fed will also extend current operations lending cash in exchange for treasuries and other high quality collateral in the repo market, “to ensure that the supply of reserves remains ample even during periods of sharp increases in non-reserve liabilities, and to mitigate the risk of money market pressures that could adversely affect policy implementation.” The markets arm of the US central bank announced last week that it would continue to inject $75bn in overnight loans into the repo market every day through to November 4.

In addition, it would conduct a series of term-repo operations — loans ranging from six to 15 days — to maintain an additional $140bn in the market until early November. Bank’s typically step back from the repo market at quarter end. The extension of repo operations into 2020 should help soothe concerns over a repeat of September’s cash crunch. “The Desk will adjust the timing and amounts of reserve management Treasury bill purchases and repo operations as necessary to maintain an ample supply of reserve balances over time and based on money market conditions,” the New York Fed said in a statement.