E' tutto come prima? Oppure è cambiato tutto? (parte 5)

Non siamo i soli, a ritenere che è cambiato tutto: che è iniziato il viaggio che porta dall'euforia verso la realtà, la fase di "normalizzazione".

Leggere questo brano dell'intervista di oggi a Lloyd Blankfein: il numero uno in Goldman Sachs, il capo della Istituzione che sul mercato viene ritenuta la più autorevole, che ha fornito più uomini nell'ultimo decennio alla Casa Bianca, e che (va detto) più di ogni altra ha beneficiato nel conto economico dalle politiche delle Banche Centrali.

L'intervista è una esplicita dichiarazione a favore del ritorno verso la normalità, e fuori dalla situazione assurda dei mercati nel 2017.

Frost: Let’s touch on your earnings yesterday, Lloyd, which was a beat on every line and overall EPS,  let’s talk about first of all about the bounceback in trading. There was a lot of focus on trading last year, back this quarter. Can that last the rest of the year or is it a one quarter bounceback, as it were?

Blankfein: If you asked it the opposite way, "this surely would last forever" I’d also discount that. Look, we don’t know. We’re more in the contingency planning business than the forecasting business but the conditions that prevail we’re not top decile or top quartile conditions in the world so, yes, they’re highly replicable I would say. Kind of feels almost standardish.

What didn’t feel standard were the conditions over the last couple of years. People will debate back and forth what’s normal what’s the new normal but conditions where interest rates are zero, yield curves are flat, there's no risk premium. Where central banks all around the world are buying all the risky assets which then therefore put a damper on volatility and the opportunities to perform, that’s not a natural state.

We have not reversed all of that, but we’re walking that back and walking to so the first indications of a withdrawal from what is an unnatural state. The market becomes a bit more volatile, people get compensated for the risk that they're taking. Our clients are doing better consequently we’re doing better with them. So I wouldn’t say we’re popping champagne corks. But we can certainly see what happens when we start to walk back towards a normal financial market.