Qualche suggerimento pratico (parte 2)

Sono passati soltanto 12 giorni dalla pubblicazione del dato USA di Febbraio per gli occupati. lo ricordate? E' quello che, secondo molti, ci avrebbe dovuto riportare ai Riccioli d'oro, a Goldilocks. Al Mondo delle Fiabe del 2017.

Noi scrivemmo, due giorni dopo, il primo Post di questa serie, con alcuni consigli pratici, che sono validi ancora oggi.

Aggiungiamo qualche considerazione, che ricaviamo dalla Riunione Fed di questa settimana: riunione che è stata molto più significativa di quanto non sia stato detto nei commenti a caldo, su tv come CNBC oppure sui giornali.

Rileggete ad esempio nel brano che riportiamo qui di seguito che cosa ha detto Powell sulle valutazioni di oggi sui mercati finanziari.

While some asset prices are elevated, particularly “some” equity prices and pockets of commercial real estate, financial vulnerabilities are still not at extreme levels, Powell said. He didn’t identify where specifically in the stock market   he saw elevated prices. “The current view of the [FOMC] is that financial stability vulnerabilities are moderate,” Powell said during his first press conference. It was “key,” Powell said, that the housing sector is not in bubble territory. Powell said he was not worried about excess leverage in the financial sector. The banking sector and household balance sheets are in good shape, he said. While there are “relatively elevated levels of borrowing” in nonfinancial corporations, “nothing... suggests serious risks.” “Overall, if you put all that into a pie, what you have is moderate vulnerabilities in our view,” he added. Powell said the Fed had “some tools” to combat financial instability “and I think we certainly use them.

La lettura di questo brano può portare diversi lettori a conclusioni diverse: per questo, vi lasceremo le vostre, e noi terremo per buone le nostre. A noi sembra che in particolare alcune parole non siano equivocabili, ma si sa che ognuno poi ci legge ciò che vuole.

Tornando a Powell, c'è un secondo brano che a noi sembra richiedere maggiori riflessioni. Ed è quello nel quale Powell risponde ad una domanda sulla affidabilità delle previsioni macroeconomiche che escono dal Board della Federal Reserve.

To which Powell responded, don’t pay attention to those forecasts. Or more precisely: “The summary of economic projections is individual forecasts compiled and written down. You have identified the median [GDP growth rate for 2017] as 2.7%. That is an interesting statistic. I would also say that the central tendency is interesting, the full range is interesting. You have a range of views around the table. One of the great benefits of our system is that we do have banks with their staffs and governs with different views. We discuss these things. The committee doesn’t vote or agree upon the medians. You are going to have a range of views. That is all I can say. Two points happens to be the median for [2018] but it doesn’t say what we think is possible.” Later, Powell mused about the possibility that the tax cuts would boost productivity, which in turn could lead to sustained rather than temporary gains in economic output. “I think in the tax bill, there is, there are incentives for, there are tax cut bill that allows expensing of investments should encourage additional investment, that should encourage productivity. In theory, an individual tax bill that lowers tax rates should encourage more labor-force participation,” he said. “We are certainly hopeful that there will be supply-side effects like that from the tax bill. I think estimates are really all over the place in terms of the amount and the timing of those.” The one Trump policy that even Powell couldn’t endorse was the trade restrictions pushed by the White House. “I would say is that a number of participants reported in about their conversations with business leaders around the country, and reported that trade policy has become a concern going forward for that group,” Powell said.

A noi questo passaggio sembra ancora più significativo del precedente, per una serie di ragioni. Leggetelo con attenzione.

Il tratto comune è che, in entrambi i casi, Powell dice all'investitore che la Federal Reserve non offre alcuna garanzia illimitata, né sulla stabilità dei mercati, né sulle previsioni di andamento dell'economia reale. Quindi ... state svegli, e fatevi da voi stessi valutazioni e previsioni.