I mercati di Ferragosto (parte 2)

Diamo un seguito al primo Post dello scroso 18 agosto, per offrire a chi ci segue una serie di spunti, spunti che noi a nostra volta abbiamo trovato in una delle (centinaia di) ricerche che riceviamo ed analizziamo.

Ci scusiamo coi lettori per i quali la lingua inglese è un ostacolo. Ci sono casi nei quali conservare la lingua originale significa conservare una parte del contenuto.

Sul momento dei mercati a Ferragosto 2017:  “Everything used as an excuse for markets to push higher has turned out to be false. Now, with fragility as high as it seems to be, it won’t take much for volatility to sustainably increase and for a lot of money to suddenly realize there has been misguided euphoria in complacency,” 

Sulla Borsa di New York di Ferragosto 2017: “Post election the U.S. stock market rally was driven by hopes of fiscal stimulus to the economy or reflation. But commodities did not confirm this and neither did the bond market, with long-term yields falling instead,” 

Sul ruolo delle Banche Centrali oggi ed in una eventuale fase di crisi: “Consider that following Thursday’s 1% decline in the S&P 500, the odds of a Fed cut are higher than odds of a hike in the next two meetings. Are things that vulnerable and fragile that mere noise results in a re-evaluation of Fed policy? If they are, does that not suggest that the extreme in stability is wildly misplaced?”

Sui rendimenti delle obbligazioni: “There is a big disconnect between various markets. Despite the reflation narrative, the yield curve is suggesting investors are more worried about deflation than inflation, referring to the difference between the yield on the 2-year and 10-year notes. The spread between those Treasury maturities is commonly used to gauge investor’s outlook for inflation and the health of the market, with a narrowing differential, or flattening, suggesting that investors maintain a bearish outlook over the long term. "

Sul ruolo dei tassi di interesse: “We are also seeing interest-rate sensitive sectors, such as utilities outperform in the short-term. Our research shows that when Treasuries and utilities outperform in the short term, market volatility rises. It does not mean it will do so this time too, but there are enough reasons to be prepared for such an outcome”

Chi oggi agisce, investe o gestisce portafogli senza dare la giusta importanza a questi elementi, compie un azzardo che potrebbe rivelarsi non rimediabile.