E MOMO gioca al ballo con la scopa. Finché la musica suona ...

Sono giorni che resteranno nella storia dei mercati finanziari internazionali: stiamo assistendo a cose che mai, in precedenza, si erano viste sui mercati finanziari, e alcune noi le abbiamo anche segnalate attraverso questo Post. Volete un freschissimo, recentissimo, e molto concreto esempio? Leggete qui sotto.

One measure of fear on Wall Street posted its third lowest finish ever, according to FactSet data. The CBOE Volatility Index closed down 3.9% at 9.51, which marks the lowest level for the so-called fear gauge since 1993. The indicator, also known as VIX, has only closed lower on two other occasions both in December 1993 at 9.48 and 9.31. 

Se mesi fa (non sei anni: solo sei MESI) gli argomenti a supporto dell'investimento in Borsa erano opposti, ma a 180 gradi, a quelli che vengono utilizzati oggi, e che leggete qui sotto.

Advances on Wall Street follow weaker-than-expected economic releases. Inflation was flat in June, while a reading of retail sales slumped, emphasizing persistent weakness in that sector and underlining consumer reluctance to spend. The patch of data raises some questions about the Federal Reserve’s ability to quickly normalize monetary policy, as it hopes to do, despite signs of anemic growth and stubbornly low inflation.

“I think this morning’s economic data once again plays into the narrative that the Fed will be more dovish,” said Ian Winer, head of the equities division at Wedbush Securities, in an interview. “It further fuels the sentiment that there’s no alternative for stocks.”

With weak inflation and less hard data pointing to growth, Winer said the Fed is more likely to think twice about raising rates and may even postpone an expected reduction of the $4.5 trillion balance sheet in September.

“Economic surprises continue to tilt toward the downside in the world’s largest economy, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance earlier in the year could once again prove ill-founded,” said Karl Schamotta, market strategist at Cambridge Global Payments.

“Market participants are increasingly convinced that the central bank’s ‘dot plot’ rate forecast will be adjusted downward, with the yield curve coming under pressure as investors fade the likelihood of rapid monetary tightening,” Schamotta said.

The so-called dot plot refers to a graph of Fed member expectations for rates into the future, while the yield curve is a line that charts yields across every available maturity. A flattening yield curve, showing a narrowing premium between short-dated yields and long-dated Treasurys, has traditionally been viewed as a sign that investors are bearish on economic prospects.

Qui c'è scritto (sul Wall Street Journal) che adesso la Borsa sale perché "tutte le sorprese economiche dagli Stati Uniti puntano al peggioramento". E quindi la Fed NON alzerà i tassi. E quindi il dollaro USA si indebolirà. Esattamente OPPOSTO ala Reflazione, e a Trumponomics. Commento: retail sales are declining after a prolonged run. This is especially troubling because the economy is near full employment. Typically, as employment gets stronger, retail sales climb. 

E su queste basi si riparte con il "panico da acquisto", con il "panic buying", con il "buy all the things".

Ripetiamo ancora: ragionare, ragionare, ragionare. Testa lucida e nervi saldissimi faranno di noi i (soli) vincitori quando si uscirà da questa fase di autentica isteria collettiva. Lasciarsi trascinare nel gorgo dell'emozione è il più grave danno che potete fare ai vostri investimenti, in questo momento. Riflettete: qualche mese in fa vi suggerivano la Borsa perché l'economia avrebbe dovuto accelerare; adesso, vi spingono vero la Borsa perché l'economia NON ACCELERA  ma rallenta. Ma davvero, volete farvi trattare in questo modo, come animali destinati al sacrificio?

Non siamo, naturalmente, i soli a vederla in questo modo.

So far in 2017, stocks have been under significant control of the “momo” (momentum) crowd. The momo crowd does not care about the economy or fundamentals. Momo simply buys because the price is going up.

It is no different now. Momo is totally oblivious to the weak economic data. In contrast, the “smart money” (professional investors) cares about the economic data.

The momo crowd continues to buy stocks aggressively. We will have to see if the smart money steps in to sell. So far, the smart money is inactive after the new data.

Investing along with momo is a fine technique but investors must be careful about two things.

• Playing with momo is like playing musical chairs. Sooner or later, the music stops and someone is left standing.

• From the large number of emails I have received from investors and social media, the momo crowd is driven only by price. Often such investors do not even have a good grasp of what a company does, yet they buy large quantities based on price momentum. Investors who are not especially nimble may consider staying away from this approach.