Il vostro portafoglio ne tiene conto? E come ? (parte 2)

In Italia, la grande massa degli investitori è stata informata, in abbondanza, sui PIR e i loro benefici fiscali. In Recce'd siamo da sempre molto attenti al COME gli investitori vengono informati, perché abbiamo il sospetto che molte scelte non siamo il prodotto del caso.

Ci sono ad esempio temi che i mezzi di informazione in Italia nascondono, o lasciano da parte, mentre nel Mondo sono sotto attenta osservazione. Un esempio è questo grafico del New York Times, di pochi giorni fa.

Lo confessiamo, è un nostro limite: in Recce'd siamo più attenti a questioni come queste, e (colpevolmente) diamo una minore importanza ad altri temi, come i PIR. Ci auguriamo che gli amici lettori e gli amici Clienti si trovino in sintonia, e ci affidiamo al loro giudizio.

A commento del grafico sopra, e di quello sotto, riportiamo un estratto dal Financial Times di due giorni fa:

  1. Virtually every class of US debt — sovereign, corporate, unsecured household/personal, auto loans and student debt — is at record highs. Americans now owe $1tn in credit card debt, and a roughly equivalent amount of student loans and auto-loans which, like the subprime mortgage quality that set off the 2008 financial crisis, are of largely low credit quality (and therefore high risk). US companies have added $7.8tn of debt since 2010 and their ability to cover interest payments is at its weakest since 2008, according to an April International Monetary Fund report. With total public and private debt obligations estimated at 350 per cent of gross domestic product, the US Congressional Budget Office has recently described the path of US debt (and deficits) as almost doubling over the next 30 years.
  2. But this is not just a US phenomenon. Globally, the picture is similarly precarious, with debt stubbornly high in Europe, rising in Asia and surging across broader emerging markets. A decade on from the beginning of the financial crisis, the world has the makings of a fresh debt crisis.
  3. In November last year, unsecured household debt in the UK passed pre-financial crisis highs in 2008.
  4. In the UK, debt excluding student loans crept up to £192bn, the highest figure since December 2008, and it continues to rise this year.
  5. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, debt-to-GDP ratios in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Belgium remain over 100 per cent. As of March there were more than $10tn negative yielding bonds in Europe and Japan.
  6. There is also the perennial risk and market concern that debt levels in China will at some point bubble to the top of the country’s economic woes in a very damaging way. Among the most risky are non-performing loans of state-owned enterprises, and mismarked and therefore not properly accounted for debt obligations in the over-heated real estate market.
  7. More broadly, emerging market borrowing is surging. Sales of EM corporate dollar-denominated notes have climbed to about $160bn this year, more than double offerings at this point in 2016 and the fastest annual start on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1999. The total stock of foreign currency EM debt stands at more than $15tn.

Il nostro suggerimento? La vostra composizione del portafoglio, e la vostra strategia, debbono sempre tenere in conto, anzi in grande evidenza, questi dati qui sopra, e quelli dei grafici. Lo stesso Donald J. Trump, messo di fronte a fatti come questi, ed anche se ha ha la bomba atomica, è ... impotente e potrà solo subire gli eventi.