Quelli che la pensano ... come Ponzio Pilato

Per completare la nostra rassegna delle opinioni sui rialzi di Borsa nel 2017, oggi vi riportiamo le opinioni di chi ... non ha più un'opinione. E se ne lava le mani.

Dopo vere scritto di quelli che NON la pensano come noi, e poi di quelli che la pensano come noi, oggi ci dedichiamo ha ci .. ci ha rinunciato.

Ad esempio: Morgan Stanley. Che scrive che il rialzo ha assunto dimensioni "epiche", senza poi spiegare se dietro a quell'aggettivo c'è una valutazione positiva oppure negativa. Per Morgan Stanley quello che è certo è che siamo di fronte a una situazione senza precedenti nella storia.

Morgan Stanley on Tuesday wrote that the equity market rally “has reached epic proportions.”

“We say this not as hyperbole, but based on a quantitative perspective,” the investment bank explained. “Dispersions in valuations and growth rates are among the lowest in the last 40 years; stocks are at their most idiosyncratic since 2001; and equity hedge fund beta is at its highest since March 2008.”

Simply from the perspective of price moves, the “epicness” of recent trading activity should come as no surprise to investors. The DowS&P 500Nasdaqand Russell 2000have all hit repeated records this year alone, notching dozens of all-time highs. Those gains have been widespread and “perpetual,” to use Morgan Stanley’s description. Only two of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors are in negative territory for the year, and for broader indexes, even mild pullbacks of 3% have basically been nonexistent for months. Volatility is near record lows. Beta refers to a measure of an assets tendency to fluctuate compared against a benchmark like the S&P 500.

“Momentum is now strongly correlated with high beta globally, and the presence of this cohort of investors could produce continued risk-seeking behavior,” wrote the team of analysts, led by Brian Hayes, an equity strategist.

Poi possiamo citare anche la Banca Maquarie, che ieri scriveva più o meno le medesime cose:

“Investors are probably suffering extreme mental exhaustion. Historically low volatilities and risks, coinciding with high valuations, would make anyone nervous,” wrote analysts Viktor Shvets and Christian Seth.

After all, they continued, investors “understand that there is nothing normal in the current environment of unprecedented financialization and economic disruption.”

Per poi concludere come Ponzio Pilato

This implies that liquidity must continue to grow, volatilities must be controlled and neither demand nor supply can yield higher cost of capital. Thus, risks facing investors are that either [central banks] and/or China misjudge extent to which reflation is dependent on inflating asset values and China’s fixed investment. We remain constructive on financial assets, not because we believe in a sustainable recovery, but because we back the perpetual leveraging ‘doomsday’ machine.

E qui risulta molto evidente la differenza da chi ragione da puro intermediario e chi invece ragione come gestore di portafoglio, ed ha come primo obbiettivo il risultato finale degli investimenti.