Le ragioni alla base di ciò che afferma il nostro titolo? Ve le spiega, qui sotto, la maggiore Società di consulenza dell'intero Pianeta, i cui consulenti costano milioni di euro AL GIORNO ai loro Clienti. Prima un grafico, e poi un estratto dal loro Report (pubblico) del novembre 2016.

Ecco che anche Mc Kinsey si butta a prevedere: quanto renderanno azioni ed obbligazioni nei prossimi 20 anni (boooom). Ma i dati sono comunque utili: aiuteranno i nostri lettori a capire ... l'aria che tira.

Ed ora ecco il testo: ciò che McKinsey consiglia ... ai Clienti di McKinsey. Noi pensiamo di utilizzare questo testo per uno spot pubblicitario (sempre che McKinsey non ci faccia causa ...).

Investment flows are increasingly moving away from active investment in equities, and toward either passive low-cost products or alternatives and multi-asset classes. €2.36 trillion ($2.66 trillion) flowed out of active equities between 2009 and 2014, compared with a net inflow of €1.43 trillion ($1.61 trillion) and €1.06 trillion ($1.19 trillion) into multi-asset and alternatives respectively. This trend could be accelerated by low returns. Investors may seek to bolster returns or invest in products with much lower charges.

To confront this, asset managers may have to rethink their asset-gathering and investment strategies. One option would be for them to include more alternative assets such as infrastructure and hedge funds in the portfolios they manage. Another approach, paradoxically, could be to enhance capabilities for active management. As is well known, only a few active managers are able to produce consistently superior returns to passively managed funds. But such managers will be in even greater demand in the next 20 years. It’s old news, but it’s now even more important: active managers that can demonstrate a track record of success will likely take advantage of the new investing dynamics. For example, while average returns in the next 20 years could be lower, our prior research reveals that corporate profits are increasingly shifting from asset-heavy sectors to idea-intensive ones such as pharmaceuticals, media, and information technology, which have among the highest margins. Within these sectors, a winner-takes-all dynamic is taking shape, with a wide gap between the most profitable firms and others. In such a world, active managers who can successfully identify the winners could realize outsize returns.

(...)

The experience of the past 30 years suggests that stock and bond returns are directly linked to underlying business and economic fundamentals. A sustained period of lower returns would have implications not just for professional investors but also households, governments, endowments, nonprofits, and foundations. (...) Resetting expectations for less bountiful times, with less stellar returns than the past three decades, is an essential starting point for all investors.

Idee 2017 (parte 8): "Investire con Recce'd è una buona idea", dicono loro