(04/05 15:02) Ecco che cosa muoverà i mercati finanziari stasera e nella notte
Abbiamo annotato, nel brano che segue, i punti di maggiore importanza: quelli che potrebbero provocare una reazione, positiva o negativa, ampia o meno ampia, dei mercati stasera:
come verrà portata avanti la riduzione dell’attivo
se ci saranno o non ci saranno vendite sul mercato di Titoli di Stato oppure MBS
se per il futuro c’è da attendersi un rialzo dello 0,75% in una singola riunione
se Powell commenterà la dinamica di prezzi e salari
se Powell darà indicazioni sulle cause dell’inflazione
se Powell ha fiducia nello scenario di soft landing
ma soprattutto, se Powell ripeterà “very little is straightforward in the current context.". Ovvero: ci capiamo molto poco.
Federal Reserve policymakers have clearly telegraphed what they plan to do at today's FOMC meeting before the latest blackout period began on April 23. Officials are set to hike rates by 50 basis points for the first time in 22 years, after lifting the benchmark rate by a traditional 25 bps (to a range of 0.25%-0.50%) during the FOMC's last gathering in March. Chair Jerome Powell is also poised to announce plans for "quantitative tightening," or allowing the central bank's $9T balance sheet to run off at a pace of $95B per month, though outright sales of securities won't be ruled out for the future.
Commentary: The question isn't whether the Fed needs to be hawkish to combat inflation, it's "only a debate as to what the right hawkish approach is," wrote Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha and Peter Williams in a note to clients. "I think he [Powell] will say that asset sales are a tool that could be used in the future but remind us that the plan is to use interest rates as the primary policy tool; QT runs in the background and the path of rates will be adjusted as needed given QT," added Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro. "Powell likely doesn't want to feed into any hopes of a 75bp hike, but if he lends any credence to that story [at the press conference], even accidentally, market participants will rush to price in 75bp for the June meeting."
Inflation has continued to gain steam since the Fed's tightening cycle began in March, with Russia's war in Ukraine pushing up energy and food prices, and China's severe COVID lockdowns further roiling the supply chain. Strength in the U.S. labor market also supports the expected larger-than-usual hike. On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Labor said job openings in March reached 11.5M - the highest level since it started collecting the data in 2000 - as companies struggle to hold onto workers. That has led to surging employment costs and higher wages, or factors that can further inflame the inflation situation.
Go deeper: After underestimating the severity of price pressures, Powell is attempting to engineer a so-called soft landing, in which rates are raised high enough to keep the economy from overheating but not so much that it triggers a recession. "While some have argued that history stacks the odds against achieving this, there are three episodes - in 1965, 1984, and 1994 - where the Fed significantly raised rates without a downturn," the Fed Chair has previously said. "I hasten to add that no one expects that bringing about a soft landing will be straightforward in the current context - very little is straightforward in the current context."