Si è girato il Mondo (in 80 giorni)

Ottanta giorni: in ottanta giorni, tutto è cambiato.

Soltanto chi è ingenuo (ma davvero molto ingenuo), oppure disinformato (ma davvero poco informato) oppure malintenzionato (uno che deve vendere i Fondi Comuni e la asset allocation) poteva dirsi convinto del “boom economico 2021”,

Il “boom economico 2021” è stata una invenzione della fantasia dei banchieri centrali, dei promotori finanziari, dei Governi e delle banche di investimento come Goldman Sachs. Il vostro private banker non si è lasciato scappare l’occasione, ha fatto finta di essere (completamente) tonto e vi ha convinti ad “investire”. Su che cosa? ma sul “boom economico 2021”.

Immaginiamo la vostra faccia, in qualche caso attonita, in qualche caso spaventata, e comunque con una espressione non delle vostre migliori, quando avete letto sui quotidiani i titoli che si leggono oggi, alla metà di luglio 2021.

Voi non lo sapete, il vostro promotore finanziario non ve lo dirà mai, il vostro private banker ve lo nasconderà fino all’ultimo momento, ma sui mercati finanziari ci sono quelli che parlano di un quarto trimestre 2021 con la crescita del PIL NEGATIVA per gli Stati Uniti.

In Europa? Figuriamoci: in Europa è stata negativa tra gennaio e marzo, che problema c’è a rifarlo?

E quindi, era tutta … una balla? Il boom economico, che era nei titoli di ogni ricerca di Goldman Sachs, di Morgan Stanley, di JP Morgan, di UBS, di Credit Suisse, di FINECO, di Mediolanum, di Fideuram, di Banca Generali, di Allianz, di Azimut ancora ad aprile, oggi è svanito? Era solo un miraggio?

Il problema è vostro, e non nostro: in Recce’d noi abbiamo scritto già a inizio 2021 che non ci sarebbe stato il “boom economico 2021”, ed i portafogli dei nostri Clienti sono già perfettamente sistemati, e fino dalla metà di aprile 2021.

Il problema invece è vostro: se continuate ad affidare i vostri soldi a questi clown, a persone che hanno già dimostrato di NON avere le qualità per comprendere ciò che succede nella realtà, oppure che vi hanno già dimostrato di parlare unicamente a favore del loro stesso interesse, anziché consigliarvi per rendere massimo il vostro risultato (risk-weighted, ovviamente), in quel caso nessuno vi può aiutare.

La testa che sta sotto la ghigliottina, è la vostra: vi suggeriamo di tirare su la vostra testa, e vi aiutiamo regolarmente mettendo a vostra disposizione articoli selezionatissimi come quello che segue. Per il resto, vedete un po’ voi.

For months, the United States has been experiencing the growing pains of an economy rebooting itself — surging economic activity, yes, but also shortages, gummed-up supply networks and higher prices.

Now, shifts in financial markets point to a reversal of that economic narrative. Specifically, the bond market has swung in ways that suggest that a period of slower growth and more subdued inflation could lie ahead.

The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell to 1.29 percent on Thursday, down from a recent high of 1.75 percent at the end of March and the fourth straight trading day of decline. The closing price of inflation-protected bonds implied expectations of consumer price inflation at 2.25 percent a year over the coming decade, down from 2.54 percent in early May.

These are hardly panic-worthy numbers. They are not the kind of jaw-dropping swings that markets show in moments of extreme turbulence, and analysts attribute the moves in significant part to technical factors as big investors shift their portfolios.

Moreover, there is a reasonable argument that the economy will be better over the medium term if it experiences moderate growth and low inflation, as opposed to the kind of breakneck growth — paired with shortages and inflation — seen in the last few months.

But the price swings do show an economy in flux, and they undermine arguments that the United States is settling into a new, high-inflation reality for the indefinite future.

In effect, the bet in markets on explosive growth and resulting inflation is giving way to a more mixed story. The economy remains hot at the moment; the quarter that just ended will most likely turn out to be one of the strongest for growth in history. But market prices aim to reflect the future, not the present, and the future is looking less buoyant than it did not long ago.

The peak months for injection of federal stimulus dollars into the economy have passed. The legislative outlook for major federal initiatives on infrastructure and family support has become murkier. The rapid spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 has brought new concern for the global economic outlook, especially in places with low vaccination rates. That, in turn, could both hold back demand for American exports and cause continued supply problems that result in slower growth in the United States.

“The overriding concern being reflected in the bond market is that peak growth has been reached, and the benefits from fiscal policy are starting to fade,” said Sophie Griffiths, a market analyst with the foreign exchange brokerage Oanda, in a research note.

The evidence of a more measured growth path was evident, for example, in a report from the Institute for Supply Management this week. It showed the service sector was continuing to expand rapidly in June, but considerably less rapidly than it had in May. Anecdotes included in the report supported the idea that supply problems were holding back the pace of expansion.

“Business conditions continue to rebound; however, like everywhere, the challenges in the supply chain are numerous,” reported one anonymous retailer that participated in the I.S.M. survey. “We continue to see cost increases, delayed shipments, pushed-out lead times, and no clarity as to when predictive balance returns to this market.”

The bond market shifts could leave the Federal Reserve wrong-footed in contemplating plans to unwind its efforts to support the economy. At a policy meeting three weeks ago, some Fed officials were ready to proceed with tapering bond purchases in the near future, and some expected to raise interest rates next year, in contrast with a more patient approach that Jerome Powell, the Fed chairman, has advocated.

In one of the odder paradoxes of monetary policy, what was perceived in markets as greater openness at the Fed to raising interest rates has contributed to declines in long-term interest rates. Global investors are betting that potential pre-emptive monetary tightening will cause a stronger dollar, slower growth and less ability for the Fed to raise rates in the future without tanking the economy.

“The market read the views of the minority within the Fed about tapering and about raising rates as signals the Fed has blinked on its decision to allow the economy to run hot,” said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at Mizuho Securities. “A weaker global economy and stronger U.S. dollar all imply greater potential for us to import global deflation.”

There are silver linings to the reassessment taking place in markets. Lower long-term rates make borrowing cheaper for Americans — whether that is Congress and the Biden administration considering how to pay for infrastructure plans, or home buyers trying to afford a house.

And the adjustment in bond prices can give Fed officials more confidence that inflation is set to be consistent with their goals in the years ahead, even as businesses face supply shortages and spiking wages at the moment.

For example, bond prices now imply that inflation will be 2.1 percent per year between five and 10 years from now, down from expectations of 2.4 percent in early May. The Fed aims for 2 percent inflation (though targeting a different inflation measure from the one that is used in the value of inflation-protected bonds).

That could make it less likely the Fed acts prematurely out of fear that inflation will get out of control, recent communication problems notwithstanding.

Markets aren’t all-knowing, and the signals being sent by bond prices could turn out to be wrong. But investors with, collectively, trillions of dollars on the line are betting that the rip-roaring economy of summer 2021 is going to give way to something a good bit less exciting

Se questo articolo non vi risulta chiaro a sufficienza, se non riuscite a tradurlo immediatamente in indicazioni operative, se non siete in grado di utilizzarlo per comprendere se le vostre mosse più recenti (quelle fatte sulla base delle indicazioni del vostro private banker o wealth manager, quelle che avete fato per “dare retta” al solito promotore finanziario) sono o meno mosse azzeccate e prudenti, allora vi suggeriamo di leggere anche ciò che ieri è stato scritto a proposito degli utili delle Società quotate dal settimanale The Economist.

Un articolo che via aiuterà anche ad interpretare i dati pubblicati nelle prossime settimane, dalle Società quotate negli Stati Uniti e in Europa, per i risultati trimestrali del trimestre aprile-giugno.

E così, finalmente capirete se avete fatto bene, o meno, ad “aumentare l’azionario” nella prima parte del 2021. Con tanti auguri, ovviamente.

It is mid-july, so the football season in England will start soon. You probably hadn’t noticed it had ended. The earnings season, when listed companies in America reveal their quarterly results, comes round with similarly tedious frequency and also never seems to stop. The second-quarter season that kicks off this week ought to stand out, though. Public companies in aggregate are expected to reveal the largest increase in profits since the bounce-back from the Great Recession of 2008-09.

Optimism about earnings has driven share prices higher in the past year. But financial markets are relentlessly forward-looking. And with bumper earnings already in the bag, they now have less to look forward to. A rally in bond prices since March and a sell-off in some cyclical stocks point to concerns about slower gdp growth. A plausible case can be made that the earnings outlook might worsen as quickly as it improved.

Start with the bottom-up forecasts for profits by company analysts. They expect earnings per share for the msci world index of stocks to rise by 40% in 2021, according to FactSet, a data provider. That is a good deal higher than at the start of the year, when the forecast was around 25%. A slowdown to a growth rate of 10% is expected in 2022. Then again forecasts tend to start out at 10%, a nice round number, before being revised upwards (as in, say, 2017) or downwards (as in 2019) as news comes in.

Profits swing around a lot. For big businesses, a lot of costs are either fixed or do not vary much with production. Firms could in principle fire workers in a recession and hire them back in a boom so that costs go up and down with revenues. But this is not a great way to run a business. A consequence of a mostly stable cost base is that, when sales rise or fall, profits rise and fall by a lot more. This “operating leverage” is especially powerful for companies in cyclical businesses, such as oil, mining and heavy industry. Indeed, changes in earnings forecasts are largely driven by cyclical stocks.

If global gdp growth falls, then profits will fall faster. There is already some evidence of a slowdown. The output and orders readings in the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (pmi), a closely watched marker of activity, fell in June. Global retail sales surged in March, but have gone sideways since. The evident slowdown in China’s economy may be a portent, writes Michael Hartnett of Bank of America. China emerged from lockdown sooner; its pmi peaked earlier; and its bond yields started falling four months before Treasury yields did.

Slower economic growth is one part of a classic profit squeeze. The other is rising costs. A variety of bottlenecks have pushed up the prices of key inputs, such as semiconductors. Too much is made of this, says Robert Buckland of Citigroup, a bank. Input prices typically go up a lot in the early stages of a global recovery. Big listed companies usually absorb them without much damage to profits. Rapid sales growth trumps the input-cost effect. The real swing factor is wages, which are the bulk of firms’ costs. The recovery is barely a year old, but there is already evidence of a tight labour market.

In America the ratio of vacancies to new hires, a measure of the difficulty firms have in filling jobs, reached a record in May. Businesses that were forced to close during lockdowns have lost some workers to other industries. Others are dropping out of the labour force altogether. Thanks to the recent surge in the prices of assets, including homes, some people are choosing to retire early, says Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley.

An obvious remedy for rising costs would be to raise prices. Though inflation is surging in America, that reflects price rises for a small number of items. Many businesses tend not to raise prices straight away. They are mindful of losing customers to rivals who don’t raise prices. And there are administrative costs to changing prices frequently. A study publishedin 2008 by Emi Nakamura and Jon Steinsson, two academics, found that the median duration of prices is between eight and 11 months. Prices of food and petrol change monthly but those of a lot of services only change once a year.

A profits squeeze is not certain. Any number of influences could give fresh impetus to global gdp growth: a bumper infrastructure bill in America; more policy stimulus in China; or some concrete signs that supply bottlenecks are easing. Still, while the earnings season now under way ought to be a sunny one, margins look vulnerable.