Ne abbiamo già scritto molto di recente, e oggi ci ritorniamo: la scadenza della fine dell’anno viene presa a spunto, dalle Reti commerciali di wealth managers e promotori finanziari, ma pure dalle banche globali di investimento, allo scopo di convincere il Cliente finale a “muovere il portafoglio”, sulla base delle “previsioni” e dei “target” per l’anno successivo.

Ogni anno è così: è un rituale commerciale, come le pubblicità in TV per i panettoni, i pandori ed i profumi.

In questo Blog, così come in altre sedi, abbiamo già illustrato, e dimostrato, che

per il Cliente finale è totalmente inutile fermarsi oggi a ragionare su “dove sarà la Borsa a fine 2022”; ed in aggiunta che
prendere questo spunto come uno spunto per movimentare i portafogli da sempre è risultato dannoso ed ha prodotto delle perdite, a volte rilevati, per il Cliente finale.

E tuttavia, ritorniamo dopo poche settimane a scrivere dei “target” perché professionalmente giudichiamo corretto informare, con dettaglio, i nostri amici lettori di quello che dicono “gli altri”.

Precisiamo: in questo Post, vi forniremo solo una serie di informazioni, senza commentarle. Un nostro commento lo troverete successivamente, in una delle prossime settimane, sempre nel Blog.

Potete leggere qui sopra l’elenco dei famosi “target” per l’indice della Borsa USA nel 2022, con a fianco il nome della banca globale di investimento che li ha pubblicati. Lasciamo al lettore di scorrere la tabella, senza commenti per ora.

Aggiungiamo poi un dato: nel grafico che segue potete vedere quanto, in passato, queste banche di investimento pubblicando i loro “target” sono riuscite ad anticipare l’effettivo andamento dell’indice.

Valutate con attenzione questi dati, tenendo bene a mente che fanno riferimento ad anni molto facili, molto positivi per la Borsa USA, che proprio in questi anni ha ricevuto aiuti dall’esterno in una misura che mai si era vista nell’intera storia della Borsa.

Un secondo dato, che può essere utile al nostro lettore, è quello del grafico che segue: come tutti sapete, pe banche globali di investimento calcolano, oppure dicono di calcolare, i loro “target” sulla base delle loro previsioni per gli utili delle Società quotate.

Ebbene, il grafico qui sotto vi ricorda una cosa importantissima, per ogni investitore che voglia decidere sugli investimenti di Borsa: vi ricorda che, nel corso dell’anno, e quindi dopo che questi target sono stati pubblicati, quelle previsioni per gli utili sulle quali i “target” vengono calcolati cambiano.

Il grafico qui sotto vi racconta in che modo sono cambiati in passato.

Il lettore che intendesse comprendere meglio questo aspetto dei “target” potrà esaminare con dettaglio i due grafici che trova qui sotto, due grafici che ripropongono i medesimi dati con un diverso formato.

Detto quindi che i “target” sono privi di significato, dal punto di vista operativo, e sono semplicemente supporti commerciali per “creare interesse”, ritorniamo però al 2022.

Abbiamo pubblicato, più sopra, l’elenco completo dei “target 2022” per la Borsa USA: le Borse europee come tutti sapete vanno sempre in scia, sia al rialzo sia al ribasso. Non hanno più una loro dinamica autonoma dalla Borsa di New York: almeno, per ora.

Noi, come già scritto, oggi NON commenteremo i “target” e neppure più in generale le prospettive dei mercati nel 2022.

Vogliamo comunque accompagnare i dati offerti al lettore fino a qui nel Post con un commento qualificato, selezionato per voi, che potete leggere qui sotto.

Ripetiamo che vi suggeriamo di leggere questo commento NON perché Recce’d ritiene che questo commento aiuti a comprendere che cosa farà la Borsa USA nel 2022: però, riteniamo che sia importante avere piena conoscenza di “quello di cui si parla sui mercati oggi”. In poche righe troverete raccolti tutti i temi che oggi vanno “di moda” tra gli operatori.

Quello che poi succederà davvero, noi lo affronteremo in un Post successivo. Perché tra i “target” di Borsa e gli obbiettivi di performance c’è una grandissima differenza, da sempre.

Vi facciamo infine notare che il commento che segue si apre con un accenno al tema della volatilità. Tema oggi a nostro parere centrale, tanto che proprio oggi dedichiamo a questo argomento un intero Post, dopo averne scritto per settimane in modo esclusivo per i nostri Clienti in The Morning Brief.

The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.

“There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,” said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup’s U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. “Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench” to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.

The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.

“That’s a big transition that creates tension for investors,” said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.

Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.

The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains “accompanied by higher volatility” next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.

Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its “foot off the gas” in the economic recovery. She expects “much lower” stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.

“Most of the equity upside should be realized between now” and the first half of 2022, “when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.

Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.

Goldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on “robust earnings growth” and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.

Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.

“Proceed with caution,” the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. “We see limited upside for equities next year,” they said. In their view, “household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend and China hard-landing are key tail risks.”

Bank of America’s analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.

“Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 — the tech bubble peak,” said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.

Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index’s close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank’s wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.

“We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. “Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.”

The core of Morgan Stanley’s “cautious” view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during “a midcycle transition,” Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that “median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.” The chart shows “the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,” but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.

“While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,” Shalett said. “We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.”

In Morgan Stanley’s view, “this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,” her note shows.

JPMorgan expects that “international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,” according to its report Wednesday.

“The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index.

Citi’s Snyder told MarketWatch that during “midcycle” he likes high-quality stocks, “dividend-growers” and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and “reasonable valuations” make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as “a volatility dampener” in portfolios.

Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as “a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,” according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.

Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are “digital transformation” intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and “automation technologies” such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow “in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation” in the pandemic, he wrote.

“I think we’ll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,” said Charles Schwab’s Kleintop. “That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.”

The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank’s CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.

While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be “dovish” on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.

“We expect two rate hikes next year,” said New York Life Investment’s Goodwin.

Morgan Stanley’s Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that “we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.” She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in “rate-sensitive sectors.”

“Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,” JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank’s strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.

“Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,” Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank’s global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.

According to Shalett, “on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.”

Investire per il 2022: target di Borsa e target di performance