I temi di mercato del 2018 (parte 3): i rendimenti "presi a prestito" dagli anni futuri

Oggi per il Wall Street Journal scrive Mohamed El Erian a proposito della "lettera a Babbo Natale che scriveranno gli investitori":

But before making their wish list, investors should consider the longer-term risks associated with the decoupling of financial markets from economic and policy fundamentals.

Questa dissociazione tra realtà economica e mercati finanziari era già evidente a tutti un anno fa. Nel corso degli ultimi 12 mesi, ha assunto proporzioni abnormi, anche secondo El Erian, che sottolinea che sul quadro del 2018 NON pesano soltanto i livelli di valutazione eccessivi delle Borse:

Add to that unusually low volatility — in the U.S., 2017 so far has shown the lowest daily loss in the entire history of the S&P 500 index — and there has been little to keep investors up at night.

Usually, such strong stock returns are accompanied by lower prices for government bonds — the so-called negative correlation between risky and safe assets. Not so in 2017. Despite the impressive equity rally, the price of longer-term U.S. Treasury bills was higher at the beginning of December than at the start of the year.

Tutto ciò detto (e c'è poco da discutere: le cose stanno in effetti così) resta poi da decidere che cosa fare dei propri investimenti. El Erian spiega, con parole chiarissime, a che cosa debbono guardare tutti gli investitori nei prossimi mesi, settimane e giorni.

Now for the less exuberant news: without continued economic and policy improvements, the factors that have delighted investors in 2017 risk generating an unpleasant reversal of fortune. This year’s strong performance has, after all, been buoyed significantly by “borrowed” returns from future years.

With regard to mitigating portfolio risk, the increase in government bond prices leaves little room for this traditionally safe asset to compensate for a possible decline in stocks. Given how many value-at-risk-based models work, the persistence of low volatility has resulted in a crowded trade in a number of areas, which could turn out to be technically fragile.

As for bitcoin, its vertiginous rise — fueled in part by the growing participation of institutional investors — may imply that it is on the path toward broad acceptance. But it may also turn out to be little more than a large financial bubble, implying serious damage when it inevitably collapses.

Come nel Post che precede questo, il messaggio è: preparatevi al ritorno sul Pianeta Terra (ed allacciate le cinture).