Perché sarà facile (parte 4)

Proseguiamo nella serie di Post dedicati al modo nel quale Recce'd raggiungerà nel 2018 gli obbiettivi di performance per i propri portafogli.

In un articolo del Financial Times di questa mattina abbiamo trovato una lettura dei fatti delle ultime settimane che è molto vicina alla nostra.

Per questo, ve ne riproponiamo una parte in lettura.

The chance that Italy ends up leaving the eurozone has risen in the last 48 hours, and that is certainly a reason to be more cautious. But I would suggest that other factors are at work.

First, there is quite a cocktail of geopolitical issues to worry about at present, with the US administration's enthusiasm to put tariffs on car imports for national security reasons another significant issue. Second, many may have been looking for an excuse to retreat from a position where financial conditions were at last starting to bite. 

I am not minimising the seriousness of the situation in Italy. But the contagion from the latest Italian ructions is owed mainly to the fact that we have financial conditions that are appropriate for a global economy that is growing strongly and needs to be reined in. That is not the economy we have (even if it appeared that way for a few months when a synchronised recovery was under way).

Investors felt uncomfortable and have gratefully taken this excuse to retreat. They also, incidentally, think that the Fed may well take the excuse of the Italian political situation to pass on raising rates next month — it is much easier for the Fed's governors to do this if they can blame some foreigners. 

Political events in Italy now matter a lot. Of course they do. But if we hope to see this wave of risk aversion abated, then the wave of data coming this Friday will matter more than any political news from Rome.