Sul macro(n)-rally del 24 aprile 2017 (parte 4)

Il sesto dei sei punti del Post che precede questo è la riforma della tassazione annunciata da Trump: e per una volta noi in Recce'd la vediamo esattamente come Ben Bernanke, l'uomo che fu a capo della Federal Reserve fino al 2014, l'uomo a cui in buona sostanza si devono gli eccessi del QE globale.

Vediamo che cosa diceva ieri al New York Times:

Mr. Bernanke, who was always a careful speaker when testifying to Congress, was mostly circumspect when it came to directly commenting on President Trump. A rare moment of direct commentary came when the conversation turned to tax policy and some of the ideas the Trump administration has floated.

“In tax policy, corporate tax reform could be helpful if it stimulates capital investment, but as a practical matter it doesn’t look like major reform is very likely,” he said, brushing aside Mr. Trump’s claims that a tax code overhaul is imminent.

“We might have lower tax rates, maybe balanced to some extent by closing some loopholes, that would be a better policy,” Mr. Bernanke said. “I don’t think it’s going create a productivity miracle or anything like that, but it would be more efficient. It would probably improve investment a little bit.”

And while Mr. Bernanke was intrigued by the notion of a border adjustment tax, he was skeptical of this, too.

“I think politically it seems very unlikely to happen,” he said. He added that it was “a really interesting idea, and it’s based on some very careful thinking about the tax code.”

The biggest headwind it faces, he said, is “there is not much confidence that the dollar would appreciate by 25 percent” — which would be required to make the math work — and “the import industry sees it as a big threat to their profits, so it’ll be highly contested.”

And what about Mr. Trump’s infrastructure plans?

“I think there is scope for smart infrastructure investment to be helpful,” Mr. Bernanke said, contending that it might make the country more productive by lowering the time people spent in traffic, for example.