Ne ha scritto anche venerdì il Wall Street Journal, con le parole che seguono qui sotto.
(…) Kass says investors are ignoring a “diminished outlook for economic and profit growth in 2019-2020,” noting that “there was nothing in the recent high-frequency data or earnings reports that changes this outlook.” We’ve got a stock market that has “detached itself from reality,” he says. “Often, as might be the case, sharp and unrelenting advances lull us into a false sense of security, particularly when global economic growth is so fragile and beginning to show signs of deteriorating,” said Kass, though he repeats from an interview earlier this week that he’s not talking about investor euphoria similar to that seen in late January or mid-September of last year. But others are out there ringing similar alarm bells. Take Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, who told clients Thursday that he’s concerned about the renewed blind love for well-known tech stocks right now. “If you asked an investor would they be willing to pay $2.9 trillion for a company that was going to show virtually no earnings growth in 2019, after a year when operating profit and free cash flow growth had slowed to zero by the end of 2018, investment spending began to accelerate and regulatory pressure gathered then they would probably laugh at you. But this is exactly what investors are currently being asked to do in the case of the FAANG stocks, Facebook Amazon Apple Netflix and Google’s parent Alphabet” says Mould. These companies have much to prove after last year’s weak finish, he says. ”Their combined market capitalizations are still teetering on ‘bear market’ territory, at around 20% below the aggregate record, and their last set of quarterly results were a mixed bag, despite the share price rallies that they prompted,” he said.
Siamo alle solite: il mercato si “stacca dalla realtà”, sotto la spinta a “comperare, comperare, comperare” sotto la spinta delle banche globali di investimento, prima, e poi dei brokers. Nulla di nuovo, quindi, per noi attenti investitori, per noi che siamo capaci a non farci confondere le idee, per noi che non ci muoviamo con i “gregge”.
Ma vale la pena di parlarne perché se guardiamo ai dati del grafico qui sotto gli investitori individuali USA, puniti pesantemente nel 2018, almeno in questa prima fase del 2019 sono rimasti a guardare, scettici sul rimbalzo. Rimbalzo che infatti, come tutti sanno, si è sviluppato su volumi scambiati ai livelli minimi.